Tomorrow is election day!!!!  I’m going to follow the lead of some other blogs and make my predictions. I’m predicting Obama will win the election and become the next President of the United States!

Let’s take a look at the states and try to predict who will win which.  According to the New York Times, there are 14 solid Obama states totaling 196 electoral votes and 17 solid McCain states totaling 137 electoral votes. There are then 10 states (Washington, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire) leaning towards Obama worth 95 electoral votes. There are 4 states (Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Georgia) leaning towards McCain, worth 26 electoral votes. Finally, there are 5 states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolia, Missouri, and Indiana) that are toss-ups, worth 84 electoral votes. So the election could go anywhere from McCain winning all the leaning and tossup states and winning the election with 342 electoral votes, to Obama winning all the leaning and tossup states and winning the election with 401 electoral votes.  If the leaners go their ways and Obama takes the tossups, he wins with 375 electoral votes, if McCain gets the tossups in this case, Obama still wins, but with 291 electoral votes.

I’m going to predict that Obama wins all of the leaning Obama states: Washington, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and New Hampshire.  Out of the toss-up states, I’ll predict that Obama takes Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina, while McCain wins Indiana. Finally, I’ll predict that McCain takes Georgia, West Virginia, and Montana, while Obama takes North Dakota.  This would mean that Obama wins the election with 367 electoral votes.  I’ll also guess that Obama gets 54% of the popular vote, which would be the most of any President in ages.

In the Senate, the Democrats currently hold a 51 to 49 advantage (if you include Lieberman). There are 15 Senate races that are considered to be competitive, of these, 14 are Republican seats and one is a Democratic incumbent. I’m going to guess that the Democrats will win in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon and hold their seat in Louisiana.  The really close races are in Minnesota, Georgia, and Kentucky.  The Democrats have a good shot in Minnesota and Georgia, but I’m going to stick with the previous 7, and say they end up with 58 seats in the Senate.

In the House, the Democrats currently hold 235 seats to the Republicans 199. I haven’t really looked at these races at all, I’ll predict that the Dems will pick up 24 seats to go to 249.

So there it is.  A historic election (very long, the most money, the first to take real use of the internet, the first to be on YouTube, a financial crisis, two wars, and a chance to elect the oldest President or the first African American President) all comes down to tomorrow.  Crazy.