The playoffs are here!!!  The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming to Foxboro this Saturday night to play the New England Patriots.  I’ve been telling people for weeks that the Jaguars are the team that scares me the most in the playoffs.  Especially in bad weather, the Jags run game and run defense could make it a tough game.  Thankfully the weather is supposed to be clear, about 35 degrees and little wind.  While the Jags would do well in bad weather with their great run defense, their pass defense can’t match up with the Patriots wide receivers.  I expect the Patriots to come out in the shotgun and 4 or 5 wide and pass all day.  On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars have one of the best rushing games in the league with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.  The Patriots will probably stack 8 men in the box and dare the Jaguars to beat them through the air.  Garrard has been great at protecting the ball and not turning it over, but he’s not a QB who’s going to beat you through the air, either.  Special teams is another big concern as the Patriots have to stop Jones-Drew from breaking any big returns there either.  My prediction: Patriots 42, Jaguars 17.

Going into the last quarter of the season, the Patriots have a few main areas of concern.  Are they too old and tired to continue playing through all the hype of a possible undefeated season?  Can they stop the run without Rosevelt Colvin?  Can they run the ball well enough to play in the cold windy weather of New England where the passing game can be difficult?  I think we’ll see the Patriots answer most of these questions today.  They absolutely must stop Willie Parker from running over them the way Willis McGahee did last week.  I expect that was a major point of emphasis this week and they will do so.  The question is if they’ll stick with the same defense as last week or try putting Pierre Woods or Eric Alexander in their at linebacker to give them some youth.  On the offensive side, I expect to see a lot more consistent attempt to run the ball.  Teams are ignoring the run and defending the pass only, making it difficult to get their usual deep passes.  If they can get Maroney going, that would really open the passing game.  If they can’t accomplish these things, especially the first, then perhaps they are too old and tired.  My prediction for the game: Patriots 27, Steelers 17.

I feel pretty good about this game.  After the Patriots poor performance last week against the Eagles, I think Belichick will have them extra-motivated to play well against the Ravens.  Since the defense performed especially poor against the Eagles, I really hope they step it up against the Ravens.  With the Raven’s offense being one of the worst in the league, this looks like a good opportunity to record their first shutout of the year.  On offense, the 20-30 mph winds scare me, but after Ron Jaworski’s comments this week that he thought Randy Moss was taking plays off last week, I expect Moss to put on an all-world showing tonight.  My prediction: Patriots 40, Ravens 0 with 3 TD’s for Moss.

The game of the year is finally here.  For the first time in NFL history, two undefeated teams with at least 7 wins each are playing each other.  The winner really does have a legitimate chance of going undefeated.  Let me give my quick preview:  I don’t see how the Colts can slow down the Patriots offense.  The Redskins have one of the best defenses in the league and were able to completely take Moss and Stallworth out of the game, but the Pats still scored 52 points.  On the other side of the ball, I think the Patriots should be able to hold the Colts to a bit lower than last year, especially if the offense can keep them off the field more than in the 2nd half of the AFC championship game last year.  My prediction: Patriots 45, Colts 28.

Wow, another dominating performance from the Patriots. 52-7! The offense was incredible and the defense was possibly even better. I was expecting this to be a close game, with the Redskins having one of the best defenses in the league (3rd in points allowed and 4th in yards allowed) and four first round picks in the defensive backfield. And what happens? 52 points. This game has convinced me that the Patriots offense is unstoppable. What can a defense possibly do? You can cover Moss and Stallworth (which the Redskins did today), but the Pats run the ball and throw underneath to Welker and still score 52 points.

The Patriots defense was also unbelievable today. Clearly they worked hard to fix the mistakes they made last week in allowing 21 points to the Dolphins. This week they held the Redsksins scoreless until the backups were in late in the fourth quarter. And Mike Vrabel played an incredible game. He forced 3 fumbles from QB Jason Cambell, one of which was returned for a TD by Rosevelt Colvin.

The Patriots definitely ran up the score this week. Running the ball on fourth down against Dallas seemed fine to me, its better than throwing it or kicking the field goal. And putting Brady back in after Cassel’s interception was returned for a TD last week seemed fine as well, a 21 point lead is not insurmountable (just look at the Texans-Titans game last week). But this week the Pats were up 38-0 and had 4th and 2 at the Redskins 7 and went for it. Although I’m not sure what the right alternative is: kick the field goal?? or just kneel the ball and let them have it? You’re not going to start kneeling the ball with over 6 minutes left in the game. It looked to me like Belichick was trying to let Brady get his 3rd TD pass of the game. With that TD pass, Brady now has 3 TD passes in each of the 8 games so far this year. And he has 30 TD passes total, putting him on pace for 60.

The Patriots definitely have been going for TD’s late in games where you would think they would lay off.  The team was pissed that other players and coaches insinuated that the Spygate scandal tarnished all of their previous accomplishments and Super Bowl wins.  The Sports Guy has termed it the “Eff You TD,” where Belichick goes for the extra TD to stick it to the league. John Clayton had an interesting article on the Pats running up the score, where he said:

“Face it, folks, Belichick plans to lay waste to the NFL. Commissioner Roger Goodell took away a first-rounder, so the Patriots will take away your firstborn. Belichick has assembled perhaps the most dominating team in NFL history, and he’s intent on destroying all opponents in his path.”

This Patriots team is just incredible right now. After today’s game, they’re averaging 41.3 points per game. They’re allowing an average of 15.9 points per game. That’s an average win margin of 25.4 points!!! They’ve won each game by at least 17 points and scored at least 34 points per game. Incredible.

I can’t wait for the game this week against the Colts. The Colts are 7-0, the Patriots are 8-0. There’s the rivalry from all the recent regular season and playoff games. The Colts comeback from 21 down in the AFC Championship game last year. The fact that this game will probably decide home field advantage in the playoffs this year. Tons of hype. The thing is, I just don’t see how the Colts defense can stop the Patriots. They just have too many weapons. At this point, I would not be surprised to see another blowout. Of course if they blow out an undefeated 7-0 team, the defending Super Bowl champions, that would really be something. But I think they should be able to score in the 40s, and hopefully hold the Colts to the 20s. We’ll see. I can’t wait.

The Patriots won Sunday 49-28, and had a 42-7 lead at halftime.  The offense in this game was ridiculous, AGAIN.  28 points scored in the 2nd quarter alone.  Partway through the 2nd quarter, Brady was 11 for 11 with 220 yards and 4 TD’s (better than 1 TD per 3 attempts).  He ended up 21/25 for 354 yards and SIX!!! touchdowns.  Insane.  Welker and Moss both had over 100 yards receiving, with Moss catching two absurd lobs to the endzone.  On both plays Moss was double-covered in the endzone and Brady lobbed it up from 35 and 50 yards away and some how Moss came down with it.  The guy really is a freak.  One of the key’s to all the Patriots offensive success has been the offensive line, which has been great.  Brady is rarely pressured or sacked and even with backup running backs the ground game had been pretty decent.

The numbers that the Patriots offense is putting up are insane.  They’re on pace to shatter the points record of the 1998 Vikings by 80+ points.  They’ve won each game by at least 17 points (avg margin: 22.7), they’ve scored at least 34 points in each game, they’re averaging 39 points per game.  Brady is on pace for 61!! touchdowns, where the record is Manning’s 49 TD’s.  Brady is also on pace to break the records for completion percentage and passer rating for a season.  Moss is on pace to be close to Jerry Rice’s records for receiving yards and touchdowns.  Brady already has 27 TD (through 7 games), where his career high is 28.  Moss has 10 TD in 7 games (the most any Patriot has had in a SEASON in ages), and Welker and Watson are both on pace for 10+ TD as well.  Incredible.

While the offense has been amazing, the defense has not been so hot.  Against Miami they gave up 21 points (the other 7 were an interception return off backup QB Matt Cassel).  The Dolphins seemed to run pretty easily against the Patriots (as did the Cowboys last week).  Part of it may be that the Patriots were in pass defense (you expect the pass when you’re winning 42-7).  But the defensive line needs to play a lot better and the tackling needs to be better.  I’ll be curious to see if Richard Seymour is able to start practicing this week, it would be great to have him back in time for the Colt game.

Coming up the Pats are facing the Redskins which I think will be a tough game.  This is probably the best defense they’ve faced so far and the second best team overall (after the ‘Boys).  The Redskins defensive backfield is made up of 4 first round picks and they’re definitely dangerous.  In addition, you have to worry about the Patriots looking ahead to the game the next week against the Colts.  This Redskins game certainly looks dangerous, and I hope the Patriots don’t overlook it.

I think the Bears are going to win this game.  Why, you ask?  Well the Bears defense is pretty nasty.  I’ve never seen a defense create turnovers the way the Bears do.  Standing guys up and ripping at the ball and tipping passes high in the air to give other defenders time to run underneath and intercept them.  Indy will be playing outside, on grass, possibly in the rain, and Peyton has not been particularly good in the postseason.  And although the Colts have their new playoff defense going, they did give up 34 points to the Patriots.  And Grossman has played well in both his playoff starts so far, and he had two weeks to prepare for this game.  If the Bears can get some of their big plays to Berrian, they have a shot.  Also, the Bears have the most dangerous returner in the game with Devin Hester while the Colts are near the bottom of league in kickoff and punt coverage.  I predict Bears 31, Colts 24.

The Patriots and the Colts meet again in the playoffs this week, this time in the AFC Championship Game in Indy.  The Patriots and Colts met earlier this season in Foxboro and the Colts won 27-20.  This game, however, is in Indy, and has the new playoff edition of the Colts defense, which is giving up about a third as many rushing yards per game as they did in the regular season.  Let’s take a look at how these changes will affect this game.

First, let’s look back to the game in Foxboro on November 5th.  The Colts won 27-20, but the Patriots were driving with a chance to tie the game with 2 minutes left until the Colts got an interception off a tip from Kevin Faulk.  For the game, Brady was intercepted 4 times, but three of those were off tipped balls.  The Patriots also lost one fumble during the game.  Even though Colts’ safety Bob Sanders (who all the media claim is the reason for the Colts D new ability to stop the run) playing in the November game, the Patriots still ran for 148 yards on 33 carries for a 4.5 yard per carry average.  Also in this game, Rodney Harrison was hurt on the Colts third offensive play and James Sanders had to play, in his first major action of the season.

This game will be in Indianapolis.  If the Patriots win this game, they will be the first team to reach the Super Bowl by beating two teams on the road that were undefeated at home.  I’m not so concerned about the crowd noise affecting Tom Brady and the offense, they have played great on the road all season.  It’s the temperature controlled dome and the turf that worries me.  The Colts are much faster on the turf and inside the dome than they are outside.  By my calculations, factoring in the strength of opposing defenses, the Colts offense is a whopping 16 points better at home than away.  That could be dangerous for us.  The last time the Patriots and Colts played in the RCA Dome in Indy was in 2003 when the Patriots won 38-34 on a ridiculous goal line stand at the end of the game (which inspired the start of this blog!).  The last matchup in Indy before that was the 2001 game where David Patten ran, threw, and received for touchdowns.  So the Patriots haven’t played too shabby in Indy.

Is the Colts run defense really as good as it has looked in the playoffs?  The Colts have made a few changes to their defense for the playoffs, with safety Bob Sanders coming back from injury, linebacker Rob Morris being inserted into the starting lineup at outside linebacker, and the defensive ends actually playing run defense instead of just rushing the passer every single play.  I don’t think the better rushing D can really be because of Bob Sanders like all the TV pundits would have you believe.  He did play in four regular season games this year (including the Pats game) and the Colts gave up a total of 661 rushing yards on 119 carries.  That’s an average of 5.5 yards per carry and 165 yards per game.  Personally, I think the big difference is that defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have actually been playing the run instead of just rushing the passer on every down.

What can the Patriots offense do?  Well with the Colts DE’s actually playing run defense and the Colts bringing an 8th man down into the box to stop the run, they are challenging the Pats to pass on them.  So I would expect to see the Patriots do just that early.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Patriots come out in a no-huddle spread offense and pass all over the Colts defense early.  Once the Colts can no longer commit that eighth man to the box then the Patriots can start to run.

On defense, the Patriots need to do a good job of not giving up the big play and not giving up too many rushing yards.  The player that worries me the most is Joseph Addai.  But if the Patriots defense line plays as it has the last few weeks then stopping the run should be possible.  The Patriots safeties are really the key to their defense.  The Colts try to use the slot receiver, usually TE Dallas Clark, to pull the safety from one side of the field over, opening the field up for Harrison or Wayne to run a deep route on that side of the field.  The Patriots safeties have to stay disciplined and stay in their coverage.  Last time James Sanders was forced to play most of the game after having not played much at all during the season, now he has 9 starts under his belt.  Plus Rodney Harrison practiced for the first time today so there is some chance that he could return to the starting lineup on Sunday.

Like most playoff games, and especially road games, it is important for the Patriots to get an early lead so they can dictate the game.  It is also very important that they do not turn the ball over.  In the last game against the Colts, the Patriots turned the ball over 5 times and were still in the game at the end.  If the Patriots can refrain from turning it over, then they have a good chance.

I like the Patriots in this game.  I think they’ll score quick with the no-huddle spread offense and then establish the run with Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon.  The Pats D will be able to stop Manning and keep him in his postseason slump.  Patriots win 28-17.

The Patriots travel to San Diego this week to face the Chargers in the divisional round of the playoffs.  The Chargers are the best team in football, went 14-2 in the regular season, are full of all-pro players, and have the best player in the (history of?) the league in RB LaDainain Tomlinson.  The Patriots will need to have a perfect gameplan and perfect execution to win this game.  Let’s take a further look at what they have to do.

The key on defense is stopping LaDainian Tomlinson.  In three career games against the Pats, he’s averaged over 140 yards.  But those were against different teams (for example, last year, when Wilfork was playing poorly, Monty Beisel and Chad Brown were our middle linebackers, and we had just lost Rodney Harrison).  With the way our defensive line of Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, and Richard Seymour have been playing lately, we should have a chance at stopping.  But can we?

Tomlinson was held under 100 yards in five games this year.  Four in a row early against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Kansas City (their only two losses came in this 4 game stretch) and the final game against Arizona.  The Chargers only played 2 teams all year that are in the top 10 in run defense (Baltimore and Pittsburgh) and Tomlinson was held up 100 yards in both games.  The Pats D is ranked 5th, only giving up 94.2 rush yards per game.

So it seems likely that we can stop the run.  But what do we have to sacrifice to do it?  If we bring 8 men in the box to stop the run, it may be pretty easy for TE Antonio Gates (the best TE in the league) to get open.  Baltimore was able to hold Rivers to 145 yards passing in that game (part of that is Schottenhemier playing Martyball and sitting on the ball in the 2nd half).  Other teams were not as lucky as Rivers passed for over 230 yards in each of the other games were Tomlinson was stopped.

I think the Pats defense has to try to stop Tomlinson using their front seven so they still have the ability to stop the pass as well.  It would be even better if we could get an early lead to put them in passing situations even more.  Then hopefully we can force QB Philip Rivers (first year as a starter) into some mistakes (a la Ben Roethlisburger in the 2004 AFC Championship Game).  Rivers only has 9 interceptions on the year, but 4 of the 9 were in those 5 games were Tomlinson was held under 100 yards.

The Patriots defense is also #2 in the league after Baltimore in opponent QB rating.  Other than Baltimore, SD also played seventh ranked Oakland and ninth ranked Denver twice.  Rivers threw 2 picks at Denver, 1 at home against Oakland, and 1 against Baltimore.

Now let’s look at the other side of the ball.  The Chargers play a 3-4 defense similar to the Pats and have a huge nose tackle Jamal Williams like our Vince Wilfork.  They also have one of the best pass rushers in football in LB Shaun Merriman.  San Diego is first in the league in sacks and 11th in opponent passer rating.  When playing teams with similar sack-happy defenses (Miami and Green Bay), the Patriots allowed 1 and 5 sacks to the Dolphins and 2 sacks to the Packers. Since that 5 sack Dolphins game (a 21-0 loss), the Patriots have worked a lot harder on their protection and only given up 5 sacks in the last 4 games.
Points-wise, the Chargers defense has not faced an offense as good as the Patriots (averaging 24.1 pts/game).  In terms of yards, the Steelers and Bengals are better offenses than the Patriots and the Chargers gave up only 13 to the Steelers but 41 to the Bengals.  In passer rating, the Bengals are higher rated than the Pats offense and the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills are rated just behind the Pats.  The Chargers gave up 41 to the Bengals, 30 (in a loss) and 9 to the Chiefs, 16 to the Ravens, and 21 to the Bills in a very close 24-21 win.

So although I was pretty worried about the matchup of the Pats O and the Chargers D, I think the Patriots have a good chance to put up some points on them.  If the Pats can stay out of pass situations like 3rd and long and throw some quick passes to avoid the blitz pressure then they should be OK.

On special teams, the Patriots are first in kickoff returns and third in punt returns against the SD coverage units which are 12th on kickoffs and 15th on punts.  San Diego is 3rd in kickoff returns and 17th in punt returns while the Patriots are 20th in kickoff coverage and 26th in punt coverage.  So the Patriots have to be concerned about their coverage units but do have a shot at breaking some long returns.

As for intangibles, Belichick and the team are battle-tested, playoff veterans and will be prepared for any situation.  The Chargers lost their last playoff game in 2004, have a QB in his first year as a starter, and a coach who has a bad playoff reputation and who reportedly will be fired if they lose.  Also, the Patriots are the underdog which always motivates them and their wide receiving corps should be pretty pumped after Florida wrecked Ohio State for the BCS Championship (4 of the Pats receivers are from Florida - Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Chad Jackson, and Kelvin Kight).

I think the key thing in this game, on both sides of the ball, will be whether teams get into passing situations.  The Patriots want to get an early lead and stop Tomlinson on early downs to force the Chargers and Rivers into more passing situations.  More passing situations would mean less worry of Tomlinson running on them and more chances of forcing Philip Rivers into mistakes.  Similarly, on offense, the Patriots want to have the luxury of being able to run the ball, meaning having an early lead and getting some good yards on first and second down to avoid 3rd and long situations where Merriman and company can blitz.

Here is my prediction: The Patriots return the opening kickoff for a touchdown. This gives them some momentum and the early lead.  The defensive line is able to contain Tomlinson, holding him to 90 or so yards.  The Patriots force Philip Rivers into one or two turnovers and the Pats’ offense does not turn the ball over.  Patriots win 27-20.

The 9-1 Bears come in to Foxboro to play the 7-3 Patriots today.  The Bears have the top ranked defense in the league (in terms of yards and points) and also create the most turnovers in the league.  The Patriots have lost their last two home games, and have just installed FieldTurf at Gillette Stadium.  Let’s take a look at the matchups:

Bears offense vs. Patriots defense: The Bears have a very good running game with Thomas Jones.  The Patriots have an excellent run defense.  If the Pats can stop the Bears running game and force them to throw, they will have a good chance at winning this game.  Rex Grossman is a two-face quarterback.  Sometimes he’s brilliant and sometimes he’s terrible.  There have been 4 games this year where a team turned the ball over 6+ times and the Bears have two of those games (and they won one).  In those two games, Grossman was responsible for 6 and 4 turnovers.  Supposedly Grossman’s throwing mechanics breakdown when he starts getting pressured and hit.  I would expect to see the Patriots run a variety of blitzes to try to pressure Grossman into some mistakes.

Patriots offense vs. Bears defense:  The Bears have one of the best defenses in the league, first in yards allowed (251.8 yds/gm), points allowed (12 pts/gm), and creating turnovers (29).  However, teams have been able to run the ball on the Bears.  The Dolphins beat them by running Ronnie Brown against them; Tiki Barber and Frank Gore have also had big games against the Bears.  I would expect to see the Pats try to use the strength of their offensive line to get Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon a lot of carries.  Maroney’s speed should have even more of an impact on the new turf.  In the passing game, the Bears play the Tampa 2 defense, which has an emphasis on stopping big plays down the field.  The Patriots will probably try to throw lots of short passes underneat the deep zone of the defense, something that Arizona did successfully in their game with the Bears earlier this year.

Special Teams:  The Bears are really dangerous on special teams.  PR/KR/FG returner Devin Hester (a distant cousin of mine?) has been phenomenal, returning a missed field goal 108 yards for TD last week.  Bears kicker Robbie Gould (in Pats camp last year) has been perfect on field goals this year.  The Patriots have placed punter Josh Miller on IR and signed punter Ken Walter back to the team (he was here until 2003).

If the Patriots can stop the run and pressure Grossman into some mistakes they will be in good shape.  Offensively, they need to run the ball and be careful about not turning the ball over.  They have to prevent Hester from getting any big returns on special teams.  I think the Patriots will be able to accomplish all of these things and win 20-10.