The Patriots have 13 picks overall and 5 picks in the first 3 rounds. Their most outstanding needs are DL, WR, OT, and CB. In their first five picks I hope the Patriots will pick a player from each of these positions, and then another player, most likely a second defensive lineman, but you never know. Who they pick first depends on who is available. Here is a list of the top 10 players at each of these positions:

For the Patriots first round picks, they could expect to see the players from 2-5 on these lists availabe. For their second round pick, the players ranked 5-10 could be available. In the first round, it looks like they will have a choice of (best available at each position): DT Jonathon Sullivan and DT William Joseph, DE Michael Haynes, WR Kelley Washington, OT Kwame Harris, and CB Andre Woolfolk. If available, I think the Patriots might take DT Sullivan and WR Washington. If Sullivan is not available, then they might take DT Joseph or OT Harris. So until I look at who the teams ahead of them might pick, I’m going to say Sullivan and Washington, with Harris a close third. For their second round pick, these players might be available: DE Antwan Peek, WR Brandon Lloyd and WR Tyrone Calico, OT Jon Stinchbomb and OT Tony Pashos, and CB Eugene Wilson. If the Pats took Sullivan and Washington in the first round then I’d look for them to take CB Wilson or OT Stinchbomb here if available. Who is available at this point, 50 picks into the draft, is hard to tell though.

Here are my predictions for the Patriots picks in the draft and the first round of the draft:

I think the Patriots really want to take DT Johnathon Sullivan with their first pick. The Jets are probably going to take him though. However, if Boss Bailey falls down to the Jets as he does in my mock draft, then they really have no choice but to take Bailey. That would leave Sullivan for the Pats. For their second pick, I think the Patriots need to get an offensive lineman. There is some debate here whether it should be OT Kwame Harris or OG Eric Steinbach. I think the Pats need an OT more since they have no one on the right side and they at least have three decent OG’s. I would really love to see them use this pick to take WR Kelley Washington. He’s big and fast and would make a huge impact on the offense. So Washington is the exciting pick, but Harris is probably the smart pick. If Harris is gone, I’m not sure if you go Steinbach or Washington, I’m hoping Washington. In the second round, if CB Eugene Wilson is around, I’d like to see them take him. If he’s not around, then who knows who they’ll take, it really depends on who they got in the first round. WR Tyrone Calico could be a possibility if he’s available and they didn’t take Washington and DT Rien Long could be a possibility if the other two are out. As for the last 5 rounds of the draft, it’s really impossible to tell who will be available and what needs the Patriots will still have. I put down some random possibilities above, but the chances of any of those guys getting picked by the Pats is probably pretty low.

OK, my last comment is that for the two first rounders I expect the Pats to get two of these players: CB Marcus Trufant, OT Kwame Harris, OG Eric Steinbach, DT Johnathon Sullivan, or WR Kelley Washington. If the Patriots end up trading into the top 5 then they would take DT DeWayne Robertson or CB Terence Newman.

The upcoming 2003 draft is going to be very important for the Patriots.  They have a lot of early round picks, including two first rounders, and they have an aging team that needs some new youth.  So this draft could decide how good of a team they end up being for the next few years.  I am going to look through at each position on the roster, see what positions are in the worst shape, and when I think they should draft what position.  Later I will look at the actual draft prospects and make some wild guesses about whom they will draft.

Offense

• QB - This position is all set.  Tom Brady is a good quarterback, and he’s  young and they have him signed to a long term deal so he should be around for a while.
• HB - I think between Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk the Patriots are fine at this position too.  It’s possible that they’ll sign somebody or draft somebody for this spot, but I think the probably with the running game is more the offensive line than the running back.
• FB - Well right now they just have Patrick Pass.  I’m expecting them to sign somebody, maybe Marc Edwards to this spot before the draft.  Otherwise they may take a fullback in the middle rounds of the draft.
• WR - Right now they have Troy Brown, David Patten, and Deion Branch.  Troy Brown is great, but we need another receiving threat to line up across from him.  Patten really shouldn’t be more than a number three receiver.  Branch will only be entering his second year, so maybe he’ll make enough improvement to become a starter, but I think the Patriots really need to draft a WR in one of the early rounds of the draft.
• TE - This is a position that the Patriots should be comfortable with.  Daniel Graham was their first round pick last year and should improve this year and Christian Fauria was the best of the veteran TE’s last year and should still be here this year.
• C - Damien Woody is a great center and one of our best offensive linemen.  He’s still young so this position is fine.
• G - At guard we have Mike Compton and Joe Andruzzi.  These are pretty good offensive linemen, but the Patriots could probably do a little better.  Also, Compton will be entering his 11th year in the league, so the Patriots will have to start looking for a new guard sometime in the next few years anyway.
• T - Right now we have Matt Light and Kenyatta Jones.  Light is very good, but Jones is extremely inconsistent.  This is a spot I expect the Patriots to either sign someone or draft someone to fill.

Defense

• S - Well as I write this, the Patriots have Lawyer Milloy, Rodney Harrison, and Tebucky Jones.  But it doesn’t look like they can keep all three.  They made trade Tebucky for a 2nd round pick or perhaps even trade Milloy.  The only way they could keep all three is if they restructure Milloy for a much smaller contract.  If they do trade Jones, then they will probably resign Victor Green.  In any case, I expect the Patriots to stick with whatever set of three safeties they end up with and they should do just fine.
• CB - Ty Law is awesome.  One of the best corners in the league.  The big question mark is who will be the corner opposite him.  The Patriots signed Tyrone Poole and still have Otis Smith, but most think Poole should really only be a nickel back, and with Otis entering his 14th year in the league, I doubt he can still be a viable starter.  I think the Patriots need to pickup a corner in the first 2 or 3 rounds of the draft.  If they do pickup a corner in the draft, then they should have an amazing secondary, and have some really great nickel and dime backs.
• LB - I think this is a position the Patriots are in pretty good shape in.  They have Roosevelt Colvin, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Roman Phifer, Willie McGinest, and Ted Johnson.  That’s six good linebackers.  The only problem with them is that three of them will be entering their 9th season or more.  So it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Patriots take a linebacker in the middle or late rounds to try to get some more youth in there.  Whomever they draft however, wouldn’t likely be able to start for two or three years.
• DT - Well Richard Seymour is one of the best defensive tackles in the league and will only be going into his third season.  They definitely need another star defensive tackle too though.  I would expect them to draft a defensive linemen in the first round and then probably another one later in the draft too.
• DE - At defensive end, they have Bobby Hamilton, Anthony Pleasant, and Jarvis Green.  Pleasant is entering his 13th season and is more useful as an assistant coach than a player at this point in his career.  Jarvis Green had a decent rookie year and hopefully will step up this year to become a starter.  I would still expect the Patriots to draft another defensive end somewhere in the middle of this year’s draft.

Special Teams

• K - Adam Vinatieri is one of the best kickers in the game.  In a clutch situation, there’s no one you’d rather have on the field.
• P - Ken Walter struggled some last year, but is still a very good punter.
• LS - Lonie Paxton is a very good long snapper, no problem here.

Needs

So we determined that on offense, the Patriots need a wide receiver, a full back, a right tackle and maybe even a guard.  On defense, the Patriots need a corner, a defensive tackle or two, probably a defensive end, and maybe even a linebacker.  Here’s how I would prioritize their needs: DL, WR, CB, T, DL, FB, DL, G, and LB.  So that’s 9 players.  The Patriots have 2 picks in the first, third, fourth, and seventh rounds and have 1 pick in the second, fifth, and sixth rounds.  So they have 11 draft picks.  And if they trade one of their safeties they’ll probably end up with another pick in one of the first three rounds.  I feel that in the first round, the Patriots will get a DL for sure.  With the other pick, they could go either WR, CB, or T, depending on who is available.  With their three picks in second and third rounds, they will get the other two positions from that trio and probably another DL as well.  So in the first three rounds I’m expecting two defensive linemen, a wide receiver, a cornerback, and an offensive tackle.  In the fourth round and beyond they will just go for value, and just pick the player that can contribute the most.  But they’ll almost certainly get another DL and probably a LB and OL in these later rounds as well.  I think they’ll sign a FB before the draft, but if they don’t then they’ll probably pick one in the mid to late rounds of the draft.  Later I’ll look at the actual prospects and tell you who I think they’ll actually end up with.