The NFL draft is coming up this weekend! Hopefully it’s followed by a full season of NFL football!   Let’s take a look at what the Patriots might do this Thursday with their stockpile of picks (3 in the first 33).

The Patriots have a huge glaring need for a pass rusher. They had no pass rush last year, resulting in terrible 3rd down defense, and they were really dependent on turnovers to stop drives. Next, they need some offensive linemen, with Stephen Neal retiring, Logan Mankins possibly holding out, Matt Light a free agent, Dan Koppen in his 30s, etc. After that there’s some case to be made for a RB to fill in the spot after BJGE and Woodhead, and possibly a deep threat receiver in the Moss mold. Personally, I’d be pretty happy with a draft of all offensive linemen and pass rushers.

The Patriots own the 17th, 28th, and 33rd picks in the draft.  RB Mark Ingram from Alabama is a possibility that’s been tossed around, but I just don’t think a 1st round RB is worth while. RB’s have a high bust rate (think Laurence Maroney), and you can often find them in the late rounds or undrafted (BJGE and Woodhead). Although if you think Ingram is going to be the next Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson type back, then it might be worthwhile.
Pass rushers on the other hand, are a surer bet, and harder to find later. Some of the names that have been talked about for the Pats are DE JJ Watt, DE Cameron Jordan, and DE Cameron Heyward. Will the Pats take one of the players at 17? Possibly. If the Pats have one guy rated higher than the other two, they could try to trade up to ensure they get him. If they feel they can drop back and still get him (like they did with McCourty last year), then they’ll likely do that. If they have two or three rated equally rated and think they can drop down and still get one, they’ll probably do it. So I’m expecting some trade movement, and one of those pass rushers (or maybe an OL).  With the 28th pick, I expect the Pats to trade down with a team that wants a QB, probably getting their second round pick (maybe around the 39th pick) and their 1st next year. Then with the 33rd pick, the Pats can listen to trade offers Thursday night, and be willing to move, knowing they’ll have a pick just a few down.

My expectation is that the Patriots will take some pass rushers and offensive linemen in the first two rounds. I would expect a RB and WR somewhere in the middle rounds. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see another young QB to develop behind Brady.

This was a pretty good game.  Another tough divisional fight. I think these close games are good practice for later in the year.  Although the defense struggled with the Wildcat in the 2nd quarter and the Dolphins’ first drive of the 3rd quarter, they came through for the rest of the second half.  A few random thoughts:

• Brady and Moss looked good, going for the deep connection.
• Vince Wilfork played over at end, and looked pretty good there.
• Stephen Gostkowski had some nice kickoffs, especially the touchback after the offsides.  I loved that Moss was the first one to congratulate him after the touchback.
• Randy Moss had a great day, especially that stiff arm.
• Miami’s rookie corners are going to be really good.  Vontae Davis had some tight coverage on Moss most of the day.
• As always, Wes Welker shined.
• The red zone offense was lacking.  We need to score touchdowns in the red zone if we’re going to win games.
• Perhaps Laurence Maroney’s “self-scouting” during the bye week paid off…

The NFL draft was two weeks ago and the Patriots did pretty well.  In the first round they traded down from 7 to 10 and got LB Jerod Mayo from Tennessee.  They drafted lots of linebackers and defensive backs, which is exactly what they need.  I’ve been waiting for them to draft some linebackers for years and they finally did it.  And it looks like Mayo has a chance to be an impact player this year, which would be great.  Overall, the Patriots have very solid and young offensive and defensive lines.  Obviously a great quarterback, and good wide receivers.  The running backs are decent.  But the linebackers are old and slow and possibly retiring (Bruschi, Seau) or leaving (Colvin) so we need to get younger and faster there.  And the same at defensive back with Asante Samuel and Randall Gay leaving and Rodney Harrison getting up there in age.  Overall, the Patriots drafted 3 linebackers, 2 cornerbacks, a safety, and a quarterback.  Here is the draft:

• Round 1: LB Jared Mayo, Tennessee
• Round 2: CB Terrence Wheatley, Colorado
• Round 3: LB Shawn Crable, Michigan
• Round 3: QB Kevin O’Connell, San Diego State
• Round 4: CB Jonathon Wilhite, Auburn
• Round 5: S/WR Matthew Slater, UCLA
• Round 6: LB Bo Ruud, Nebraska,

In addition to the draft, the Patriots signed LB Victor Hobson, CB Fernando Bryant, and S Tank Williams this offseason.  So once again they’re targeting their need, just like last year with wide receivers.  Hopefully they’ll have another dominant year.

The Patriots traded a fourth round pick to Oakland for Randy Moss on Sunday.  Moss even re-structured his contract to take $7 million less to come here.  My friend actually asked me on Saturday what I thought about all the talk that the Patriots were trying to trade for Moss.  I told him that it had to be all rumors, there was no way the Patriots would want Randy Moss.  I did tell him however, that I’d much rather have Randy Moss than Terrell Owens.  Moss may quit on some plays, but at least you can get rid of him without him tearing about your team like TO did to the Eagles.  I have to say I’m pretty shocked by the Patriots making this move.  The media keeps comparing this to the Corey Dillon trade but it seems a lot different to me.  Dillon didn’t have the rap sheet that Moss has and he was never a guy who would quit on a play or on a team.

That being said, I’m excited about the prospect of Brady being able to throw to Randy Moss, Dante Stallworth and Wes Welker (don’t forget Ben Watson too, who may be the fastest of the group).  If Moss decides to put in the effort and play (and he better or I’m sure he’ll be out of here) then this offense will be quite a sight.  Brady has never had a serious deep threat to throw to and now he has two.  With those weapons and Laurence Maroney, this should be quite an offense.  I really would like to be at Gillette for the home opener this year just to feel the excitement in the air around this team.  After being 30 seconds from the Super Bowl last year, they’ve gone out and turned one of the worst WR corps in the game into one of the few best and signed the best linebacker available as well.  The expectations are incredibly high now, I can’t wait to see what will happen.

Mike Reiss posted in his blog an article from Cleveland about how the Browns nearly picked Ellis Hobbs over QB Charlie Frye in the 3rd round:

“We ranked 150 players on our board,” Savage said. “Charlie was our 45th-ranked player. People say, ‘Is that a second-round grade?’ We just let players fall off the board and said, ‘If he’s still there when the players ahead of him are gone, we’ll take him.’

“There was one name ahead of Charlie Frye when it was our turn in the third round.‘’

The name was Ellis Hobbs. …
“We’re sitting there talking about it,” Savage aid, “and I’m like … ‘OK, Ellis Hobbs is … probably gonna be a nickel corner. He might be a starting corner at some point, but … he’s 5-foot-9, 180-some pounds, and he’s he only guy standing between Charlie Frye and the Cleveland Browns.

“ ‘Guys, there’s no way we pass up Charlie Frye, who potentially might be our quarterback in a year or two, because this kid … has got grit, moxie, mobility. He’s got just enough arm. Let’s do it.’ ”

The reason I find this interesting is that from what I’ve read from Belichick’s comments about the draft, this would never happen in the Patriots’ war room. If you are going to pick Frye over Hobbs, then Frye should be rated over Hobbs. It sounds like Belichick, Pioli, and the staff evaluate all these possible decisions and know when they get there who they will draft out of who’s available so that there is no need for discussions like this in the war room. There’s no reason to save a discussion like “Ellis Hobbs or Charlie Frye” until you’re on the clock when you could have done it weeks in advance. This kind of preparation is just another reason why the Patriots are so good.

Sorry this review is a little late, I was on vacation in Italy last week. The Patriots went into the draft with 11 picks, and they ended up drafting 10 players. They used on two picks to trade up in the second round for WR Chad Jackson. Here are their picks:

As I had said before, I thought the Patriots most pressing needs (where they needed starters) were WR, LB, and K. They also needed to get younger at RB. A lot of people keep saying they needed to pick a defensive back, but I think with Randall Gay, Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, and Chad Scott at corner and Eugene Wilson, Rodney Harrison, Artrell Hawkins, James Sanders, and Tebucky Jones at safety we should be ok.

Anyway, the Patriots got two of their needs out of the way quickly, getting RB Laurence Maroney (who the Colts supposedly wanted) in the first round and moving up in the second round to get WR Chad Jackson (who was rated as a first round talent). The Patriots got an extra tight end and a versatile TE/FB in the third round and then got the best kicker available in the draft in the fourth round. So they filled their needs at RB, WR, and K with some of the best players available.

The Patriots did not draft a LB, however I’m starting to think this makes some sense. In the Patriots system, linebacker is a very complex position and it may be very hard for a rookie to come in and play there. Even two veterans, Monty Beisel and Chad Brown, were unable to come in and play linebacker for us last year. Hopefully with a year in the system, Monty Beisel is better prepared to play inside, or maybe one of the younger players, like Tully Banta-Cain, Eric Alexander, or Ryan Claridge, will be ready to step into a starting role.

I also liked that the Patriots picked a nose tackle in the later rounds, they needed another guy to backup and rotate with Vince Wilfork in there.

Overall, I think this was a very good draft: the Patriots got the two first round values in Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson, and they filled their needs at RB, LB, and K with players ranked in the top two at each of those positions. Now we just have to wait and see if Chad Jackson can really step into a starting role opposite Deion Branch and if the Patriots can find a linebacker in their system to step up as a starter.

Ok we determined in the last post that the Patriots need to fill in starting roles at wide receiver, linebacker, and kicker, and will probably look to draft a running back and defensive back as well. The Patriots currently have a whopping 11 picks in the draft, here’s how they stand:

The Patriots two main needs, WR and LB, are two of the hardest to scout for the draft. First round wide receiver picks hardly ever impress in their first few years (see the Lions last three drafts for example). David Givens was a 7th round picker and developed into a great player for the Patriots, while 2nd rounder Bethel Johnson is close to be cut or traded. Linebacker is hard because the Patriots play the 3-4 and most college teams play 4-3. This means that most outside linebacker prospects probably played defensive end in college and would have to convert to OLB in the NFL.

Here are a couple names to keep your eye on in the draft that the Patriots may be interested in:

• WR Chad Jackson, Florida - Is supposed to be the best wide receiver in the draft, but the Patriots would likely have to trade up in the first round to get him. With WR being such a hit-and-miss draft I doubt this move. The Patriots did host Jackson for a visit to Gillette Stadium however.
• WR Maurice Stovall, Notre Dame - This is a player who played under Chalie Weis last year at Notre Dame in a system similar to the one the Patriots use and had over 1000 yards and 11 TDs. He could be a good guy to fill Givens’ spot. He is projected to go in the second round of the draft.
• ILB Bobby Carpenter, Ohio State - Possible prospect for inside linebacker for the Patriots.
• ILB Chad Greenway, Iowa - Another possible inside ‘backer, who played for Belichick’s friend Kirk Ferentz.
• OLB Manny Lawson, NC State - Played as a DE in college, but some reports say he could have the talent to be the next Willie McGinest.
• Tye Hill, CB, Clemson - Small size but fast and athletic, he was in for a visit at Gillette last month.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Patriots draft ILB Chad Greenway in the first round and WR Maurice Stovall in the second. They trade their third round picks to move up to the second round to grab DE/OLB Manny Lawson there as well. From that point its anybody’s guess, as I’m sure the Patriots will use their cache of picks to move up and down the draft board.

I’m going to start my preview of the 2006 NFL Draft by looking at the Patriots position by position needs. Then later this week I’ll take a look at the Patriots picks and some players they might take. As for their needs, I’m going to rate each position in two categories: their need this year and their need in the future. Their need this year means they need to get a new player at that position this year, either starter or backup, while the future need indicates that their players at that position may be getting older and we will need to start looking for replacements.

QB
Current Players: Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, Todd Mortenson
Comments: The Patriots need a backup for Brady here, but it will likely either be Doug Flutie or another veteran, they have no great need for another rookie.
Current Need: 7 (veteran though)
Future Need: 1

RB
Current Players: Corey Dillon, Kevin Faulk, Heath Evans, Patrick Pass, Earl Charles
Comments: The Patriots have no immediate need here with Dillon and Faulk but they will want to start looking for a young back to bring in to eventually replace Dillon.
Current Need: 3
Future Need: 8

WR
Current Players: Deion Branch, Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, Bethel Johnson, Brandon Childress, Rich Musinski, Michael McGrew, John Stone, Zuriel Smith
Comments: The Patriots took a big hit losing David Givens. They will need a number 2 receiver, unless Caldwell or Johnson suddenly break out to take that spot. I would expect the Patriots to draft a wide receiver in one of the early rounds.
Current Need: 10
Future Need: 4

TE
Current Players: Ben Watson, Daniel Graham
Comments: The Patriots have two great young tight ends in Watson and Graham. They did lose Christian Fauria to the Redskins though so I would expect them to try to find a new third tight end in free agency or the draft.
Current Need: 5
Future Need: 3

OT
Current Players: Matt Light, Nick Kaczur, Brandon Gorin, Wesly Britt, Jeff Roehl
Comments: The Patriots have three starting caliber tackles with Light, Kaczur and Gorin. There is some concern about Light’s return from injury, but overall this position looks pretty good.
Current Need: 3
Future Need: 2

OG
Current Players: Logan Mankins, Stephen Neal, Russ Hochstein, Billy Yates, Ross Tucker, Nick Steitz, Gene Mruczkowski
Comments: Mankins and Neal are two good young offensive linemen and Hochstein is a decent backup.
Current Need: 3
Future Need: 2

C
Current Players: Dan Koppen, Gene Mruczkowski
Comments: Koppen is a very good center and is still pretty young. We may want to get a backup center or extra offensive linemen however.
Current Need: 4
Future Need: 4

NT
Current Players: Vince Wilfork, Dan Klecko, Mike Wright
Comments: Wilfork struggled early last year after taking on the full time nose tackle duties with the departure of Keith Traylor. The Patriots may want to bring in another nose tackle through the draft or free agency to spell Wilfork on some downs. Neither Klecko or Wright really fit the bill and this position is the key to the 3-4 defense.
Current Need: 7
Future Need: 4

DE
Current Players: Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, Santonio Thomas, Marquise Hill
Comments: These are some of the best players on the Patriots and they are all signed through 2009. It will be interesting to see how Marquise HIll fairs this year after not doing much his first few years here.
Current Need: 1
Future Need: 1

OLB
Current Players: Rosevelt Colvin, Mike Vrabel, Tully Banta Cain, Eric Alexander
Comments: The Patriots lost McGinest to free agency this offseason. This means they either need to move Vrabel back outside or get a new outside linebacker. Either way, the Patriots linebacking core is getting older and they will need replacements soon.
Current Need: 8
Future Need: 8

ILB
Current Players: Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Monty Beisel, Larry Izzo, Don Davis
Comments: As I just said, the Patriots need to get a new backer, either inside or outside depending on where Vrabel moves. Inside backer is another older position on the team, with Bruschi, Vrabel, Izzo, and Davis all up there in age.
Current Need: 8
Future Need: 9

CB
Current Players: Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, Ellis Hobbs, Chad Scott, Hank Poteat, Antwain Spain, Eric Warfield
Comments: With the number of injuries the Patriots have suffered in the defensive backfield in recent years, they could always use more corners and safeties. As it stands, Samuel and Hobbs would probably be the starters.
Current Need: 6 (veteran though)
Future Need: 4

S
Current Players: Rodney Harrison, Eugene Wilson, Artrell Hawkins, Tebucky Jones, James Sanders, Guss Scott, Raymond Ventrone, Mel Mitchell
Comments: The Patriots struggled to find a replacement for Harrison last year after he got hurt. Eventually Artrell Hawkins got the job. They brought in former Patriots Tebucky Jones this offseason as well. I would not be surprised to see them draft a safety in case Harrison does not recover as fast as hoped. Either way, Harrison is probably reaching retirement soon anyway.
Current Need: 6
Future Need: 7

P
Current Players: Josh Miller
Comments: Pretty good.
Current Need: 1
Future Need: 1

K
Current Players: Martin Gramatica
Comments: The loss of Adam Vinatieri this offseason was huge. The Patriots have brought in Martin Gramatica for now. If he returns to the form of his first few years in the league then he will be great. If he is still struggling as he was the last two years then it will not be so good. I would expect the Patriots to draft or sign a rookie kicker to compete with Gramatica in camp.
Current Need: 8
Future Need: 1

LS
Current Players: Lonie Paxton, Jon Condo
Comments: Paxton has been great for us, no real need here.
Current Need: 1
Future Need: 3

Overall, the Patriots greatest needs are at linebacker and wide receiver. Following that, they need to bring in an extra kicker, a backup quarterback, a younger running back, and some extra defensive backs. But wide receiver and linebacker are the two positions where they need to fill a starting spot on the team this year.

The first thing to look at is the Patriots current roster and what their needs are.  They made a brilliant trade two days ago by trading their second round pick to Cincinatti for RB Corey Dillon, one of the best backs in the league.  With this move they now have the league’s best defense, one of the best QB’s and one of the best RB’s.  It’s a great trade because they would have ended up spending a first round pick on a running back that may or may not be good. Instead they spend a second round pick on a running back that they know is good.  Another way to look at it is that last year they traded Tebucky Jones for a 3rd and 7th round pick last year and a fourth round pick this year.  Then they traded that third rounder last year to Miami for a 2nd rounder this year.  And now they’ve traded that second rounder for Corey Dillon.  So the end result is that they traded Tebucky Jones for Corey Dillon and a fourth and seventh round pick.  Quite a move.  Anyway, here’s a look at their current roster:

QB: Tom Brady is a two-time Super Bowl MVP and we also have Kliff Klingsbury and Rohan Davey.  So we’re all set.

RB:  Corey Dillon, Kevin Faulk, and Mike Cloud.  Looks good.

FB:  Fred McCrary, Patrick Pass.  I guess we could use someone here, but not a pressing need.

WR: Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens, Bethel Johnson, Dedric Ward, JJ Stokes.  Looks really good but we could always add another tall receiver from one of the deeper positions in the draft.

OT:  Tom Ashworth, Matt Light, Adrian Klemm.  Actually pretty good, but you can alwasy use extra offensive linemen.

OG: Joe Andruzzi, Russ Hochstein.  Ok this position is pretty weak.  Definitely look for the Pats to pick someone up in the draft here.

C:  Dan Koppen.  They could always pick up another versatile lineman that can play center.

TE: Christian Fauria, Daniel Graham.  Looks good.

DT: Keith Traylor, Dan Klecko, Ty Warren, Richard Seymour.  This position is OK, but there’s no one here who is a true nose tackle for the 3-4.  So look for the Pats to draft a huge nose tackle.

DE: Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, Rodney Bailey.  Looks really good, but it never surprises me to see the Pats pickup more linemen.

LB: Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, Roman Phifer, Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Roosevelt Colvin, Matt Chatham.  Very good, but everyone is very old.  Look for the Pats to pickup some young LB’s in the draft.

CB: Ty Law, Tyrone Poole, Asante Samuel, Jeff Burris, Otis Smith.  Another pretty good position but look for them to draft someone to eventually replace Ty Law.

S: Rodney Harrison, Eugene Wilson.  Definitely need help here.  Especially if they eventually want to move Eugene Wilson back to corner.

K: Adam Vinatieri.  The best clutch kicker in the game.

P: Josh Miller.  Hopefully pretty good.

So I guess I’d say the order that they need players in is S, OG, DT, LB, anywhere.  Some of the names you might see them pickup are S Sean Taylor (if they trade way up), LB Jonathon Vilma, LB DJ Williams, DT Marcus Tubbs, OG Justin Smiley, OG Vernon Carey, or S Bob Sanders.

Here is a list of the picks the Patriots made in this weekend’s draft:

Well in my preview of the draft I said the Patriots needed to get players at DT, CB, WR and OL in the early rounds of the draft.  They got 2 DTs, 2 CBs, and a WR in the first four rounds, but no OL, so I’m somewhat disappointed there.  Here’s my review of the picks:

• DT Ty Warren - He should be a good player but I think the Patriots were really hoping to get DeWayne Robertson or John Sullivan.  This should be a good pick though.
• CB Eugene Wilson - The Patriots traded their number 19 pick down to number 36 for a 1st round pick from Balitmore next year.  This was a good trade.  They still got one of the top 4 CBs in Wilson and they get a 1st rounder in next year’s draft which should be very deep.  As for Wilson, this was a player I wanted them to take.  I predicted the Pats would pick Wilson in the 2nd round, and that was the only Patriots prediction I got right.  The Pats really need a CB to go across from Ty Law so this pick I really like.
• WR Bethel Johnson - This pick confused me.  When the Pats made this pick, WR Kelley Washington and WR Tyrone Calico were still available.  Most teams had Johnson as more of a 4th round pick.  But he is one of the fastest receivers in the draft although his hands are suspect.  He seems hard working and dedicated, so hopefully this will be a good pick.  I don’t know about the round he was picked, but if he turns into a top three receiver on the team then it will be a great pick.
• DT Dan Klecko - Dan Klecko is a great pick.  He has ridiculous upper body strength and a great work ethic, he is just smaller than your normal DT.  I think he will end up being a great pick.
• CB Asante Samuel - Another good pick.
• C Dan Koppen - Koppen followed Woody at BC and now he’s back with Woody again.  For now he’ll take over Ruegamer’s role as backup C/G, but perhaps he could eventually becoming a starting center and Woody could move to guard.
• QB Kliff Kingsbury - I’m not sure about this pick.  He threw for over 5,000 yards in college in a run and shoot offense at Texas Tech.  Plus we have some good QBs.
• TE Stephen Nead - Another odd pick since we have Christian Fauria and Daniel Graham.  But maybe the Patriots know something I don’t.
• DE Tully Banta-Cain - This is another good pick.  Many teams had this player a few rounds higher and he could turn into a great defensive end.
• DT/OL Ethan Kelly - This player was a defensive tackle his last two years of college, but before that was an offensive lineman.  The reviews I read said he would be better in the pros as an OL than a DT so maybe the Pats are planning to use him as an offensive lineman.

Draft Evaluation:

I think that this was a very good draft.  My only big questions are why they drafted Bethel Johnson when they did and why they didn’t draft an offensive lineman with one of their early picks.  In a few years, we’ll be able to look at this draft and see if the Pats really know something about Bethel Johnson that we don’t and he’ll be a star.  When we look at this draft a few years from now, hopefully we’ll see some starters in Warren, Johnson and Wilson and maybe some sleeper starters in the late rounds as well, possibly Klecko and Banta-Cain.  This draft added some extra defensive lineman and added youth and speed to the defense overall.  Plus we got a couple of draft picks for next year, which should be a deep draft.  Overall Grade: A-