Archive for the '2006 Season' Category

Computer Playoff Predictions

Wednesday, January 3rd, 2007

Here are the computer’s predictions for the playoffs.  It now predicts the Ravens overcoming the Chargers home field advantage to win the Super Bowl over the Bears (it had been picking the Chargers to win it all the last few weeks)

Wildcard Games
Colts 31 - Chiefs 21
Patriots 24 - Jets 20
Eagles 24 - Giants 20
Cowboys 24 - Seahawks 21
Divisional Playoffs
Chargers 24 - Patriots 21
Ravens 27 - Colts 20
Bears 24 - Cowboys 23
Saints 24 - Eagles 21
Conference Championships
Ravens 24 - Chargers 21 OT
Bears 24 - Saints 21
Super Bowl
Ravens 21 - Bears 14

Patriots Titans Review

Wednesday, January 3rd, 2007

Well the Patriots put together another impressive win on Sunday, beating the Titans 40-23.  The Patriots have now gone three straight games without turning the ball over.  The win came at great cost however, as Rodney Harrison was injured during the game and may be out for the playoffs.  But it was certainly good to see the Patriots put together three good wins these last few weeks and have some momentum heading into the playoffs.

Computer Predictions for Week 17

Friday, December 29th, 2006

Week 17 Predictions
Jets 24 - Raiders 14
Bengals 28 - Steelers 20
Ravens 21 - Bills 14
Titans 24 - Patriots 21
Colts 24 - Dolphins 20
Texans 24 - Browns 20
Broncos 24 - 49ers 20
Chargers 31 - Cardinals 17
Jaguars 23 - Chiefs 21
Eagles 23 - Falcons 17
Redskins 23 - Giants 20
Cowboys 28 - Lions 20
Bears 27 - Packers 17
Vikings 24 - Rams 20
Saints 24 - Panthers 16
Buccaneers 20 - Seahawks 17 OT
Last Week:
Picked winning team: 5-11, 0.312
Against the spread: 9-7, 0.562
Picking over/under: 12-4, 0.75

Computer Predictions for Week 16

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

Week 16 Predictions
Dolphins 21 - Jets 17
Bills 23 - Titans 20 OT
Ravens 21 - Steelers 17
Browns 20 - Buccaneers 14
Jaguars 21 - Patriots 20
Colts 27 - Texans 23
Chiefs 23 - Raiders 20 OT
Bengals 24 - Broncos 23
Giants 23 - Saints 21
Cowboys 28 - Eagles 17
Packers 23 - Vikings 17
Bears 24 - Lions 21
Falcons 20 - Panthers 17
Redskins 24 - Rams 21 OT
49ers 24 - Cardinals 20
Chargers 24 - Seahawks 21 OT
Last Week:
Picked winning team: 9-7, 0.562
Against the spread: 6-10, 0.375
Picking over/under: 6-10, 0.375

What’s gone wrong?

Thursday, December 14th, 2006

After the 21-0 loss to the Dolphins I have two main questions about the Patriots: What has gone wrong? and Can it be fixed?

Defensively, the Patriots are statistically much better than they were a year ago and are giving up the second fewest points in the league.  Once Vince Wilfork went down in the Miami game though, the Dolphins had a much easier time running the ball and were able to score 15 of their 21 points with Wilfork out of the game.  If Wilfork and Harrison don’t get healthy in time for the playoffs, the defense might be pretty ugly.

Offensively, the situation looks even worse.  The Patriots top two weapons, RB Laurance Maroney and TE Ben Watson, are both injured right now.  Without Maroney, the Patriots still have Corey Dillon at running back, but he apparently is no longer in good enough shape to play an entire game anymore, pulling himself out every few plays.  The wide receiving corps is prettly slim.  Troy Brown and Reche Caldwell are the leaders.  It appeared a few weeks ago that Doug Gabriel was progressing and was going to be Brady’s go-to guy, but now he just got cut this week.  The player that Brady threw to the most was TE Ben Watson, who got injured in the Miami game as well.  Finally, the Patriots offensive line was unable to block Miami’s rushers in the last game, although part of that is also that Brady does not have a top-threat receiver to throw to in those pressure situations.  The Patriots offensive line can work and probably not play as bad as they did in Miami.  The receiver corps probably isn’t going to get much better, but it is vital that Ben Watson comes back.

In addition to these issues, the Patriots have also had problems with turnovers and penalties in the last few games.  These are problems that should be correctable, but the Patriots haven’t shown much improvement in these areas in the last few weeks.

Overall, if Watson, Maroney, Wilfork, and Harrison come back, I would expect the Patriots to be fairly dominant defensively but struggle without any true #1 receivers on offense.  Still, having Maroney and Watson can make them pretty dangerous.  If the injured players come back and the team can avoid the turnovers and penalties, their defense should give them a shot at winning some games in the playoffs.

Computer Predictions for Week 15

Thursday, December 14th, 2006

Week 15 Predictions
Patriots 27 - Texans 17
Bills 20 - Dolphins 17 OT
Ravens 24 - Browns 10
Titans 21 - Jaguars 20
Colts 30 - Bengals 27 OT
Raiders 23 - Rams 17
Chargers 27 - Chiefs 21
Giants 24 - Eagles 17
Packers 27 - Lions 21
Bears 21 - Buccaneers 10
Vikings 24 - Jets 21 OT
Saints 27 - Redskins 17
Panthers 24 - Steelers 20
Cowboys 24 - Falcons 21
Seahawks 23 - 49ers 17
Cardinals 21 - Broncos 20
Last Week:
Picked winning team: 9-7, 0.562
Against the spread: 9-7, 0.562
Picking over/under: 9-7, 0.562

Computer Predictions for Week 14

Thursday, December 7th, 2006

Week 14 Predictions
Patriots 24 - Dolphins 21 OT
Jets 23 - Bills 17
Steelers 24 - Browns 20
Bengals 23 - Raiders 14
Jaguars 24 - Colts 21
Titans 21 - Texans 20
Chargers 27 - Broncos 20
Ravens 24 - Chiefs 21 OT
Eagles 24 - Redskins 21 OT
Cowboys 28 - Saints 21
Lions 23 - Vikings 20
Buccaneers 21 - Falcons 17
Panthers 21 - Giants 20
Bears 21 - Rams 17
Packers 23 - 49ers 21
Seahawks 24 - Cardinals 21 OT
Last Week:
Picked winning team: 7-9, 0.438
Against the spread: 7-9, 0.438
Picking over/under: 8-8, 0.5

Patriots Lions Review

Sunday, December 3rd, 2006

This was one ugly game by the Patriots.  I kind of expected them to come out flat; its pretty hard to get excited about playing the Detriot Lions.  The Patriots turned the ball over 3 times, had an absurd number of penalties, and gave up a safety.  Their defense looked really porous against the Lions, I can’t wait until Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison come back.  But when it came down to crunch time, Brady was clutch as always, leading them on two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to win the game 28-21.

The Patriots really need to work on their turnover problem.  I think Ben Watson has fumbled the ball in each of the last 4 games.  In recent weeks, the Patriots have fumbled 3 times against the Lions, 4 times against the Bears, 4 times against the Packers, and 2 times against the Jets.  The Pats need to fix this if they’re going to go anywhere in the playoffs.

On another note, I was watching the game at the sports bar here in Austin today.  I’d say that Patriots fans were the second largets crowd after Bears fans.  But the whole place went crazy when Bironas made that 60 yard field goal to give Tennessee the win over Indianapolis.  I guess people everywhere hate the Colts.

Another entertaining game this week was the Giants-Colts game.  How crazy is it that the kicking was so important this week after Parcells cut Mike Vanderjagt (the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL), and signed Martin Gramatica (60% in his last two years in the league).  Gramatica came through though, hitting 3 of 4 field goals, including the game winner at the end.  Vanderjagt may be historically accurate, but he is nearly as un-clutch as Peyton Manning and very possibly would have missed that FG to win the game.  Great move by Parcells.

Computer Predictions for Week 13

Thursday, November 30th, 2006

Week 13 Predictions
Patriots 28 - Lions 16
Dolphins 20 - Jaguars 17
Bills 23 - Chargers 21
Steelers 23 - Buccaneers 16
Chiefs 23 - Browns 20 OT
Bengals 23 - Ravens 20
Titans 27 - Colts 24 OT
Raiders 20 - Texans 17
Broncos 23 - Seahawks 17
Giants 24 - Cowboys 21
Eagles 21 - Panthers 17
Redskins 24 - Falcons 17
Packers 23 - Jets 20
Bears 23 - Vikings 14
Saints 27 - 49ers 20
Rams 24 - Cardinals 17

Patriots 17 - Bears 13

Monday, November 27th, 2006

Well the Patriots finally got a win over a good team, beating the 9-1 Bears 17-13.  As expected, this game was all about turnovers.  We knew that we could force Grossman into some and that the Bears D was great at creating them.  Both those things came true as there were a total of 9 turnovers in the game.  Most of the turnovers occurred in the red zone, ending long drives and still leaving the offense with a long field to go.  In the end, the Pats came up clutch when they needed it most, going on a long scoring drive after that the Bears had just tied it 10-10 in the fourth quarter.  Some sloppy play but a good win.

The Bears determination to create turnovers is incredible.  They have such speed and they all converge on the ball and try to hit or rip it out.  Maroney’s fumble in the first half was caused by Lance Briggs simply tearing the ball out of Maroney’s hands.  Brady’s second interception occured when the ball was tipped off Troy Brown’s hand, then Daneal Manning purposely tipped it up again, and Charles Tillman was able to run underneath it and catch it for the interception.  It’s funny that on SportsCenter, Chris Berman always says “Knock it down!!” but the Bears actually try to tip it up, assuming that their speed on defense will allow them to get enough interceptions that way to offset any completions that occur that way.  Manning looked like he was trying to set up a spike in volleyball on the play.

The Patriots did come up clutch when the Bears put the pressure on early in the fourth when the tied it 10-10.  The Patriots drove right down the field and got a TD to take the lead back 17-10.  The key play on the drive was Brady running for 12 yards on 3rd and 9 by juking LB Brian Urlacher.  Pretty incredible stuff.  The Pats almost lost the ball again a few plays later as Brady ran a QB sneak and lost the ball but was able to recover.

The Patriots defense played really well.  They did allow quite a few rushing yards but otherwise held their ground.  The Bears only touchdown came because of a questionable pass interference call on Ellis Hobbs.  The Pats were able to pressure Rex Grossman into mistakes, recovering a key fumble inside the 10 yard line to prevent the Bears from taking an early lead, and Asante Samuel picked Grossman off 3 times!

There were a lot of great performances by the Pats in the game.  Brady was excellent, running and throwing the ball very well against the best D in the league.  Troy Brown made some great plays on offense, defense, and special teams.  He was knocking down passes, blitzing the quarterback, making clutch catches, and fielding punts.  Absolutely incredible!  Richard Seymour had a big day with a sack, field goal block, and a fumble recovery.  Asante Samuel had 3 picks and was very good in man coverage all day.  And kicker Stephen Gostowski was good as well, making a 52 yard field goal at the end of the first half.

This was my first game back at Gillette Stadium since moving to Texas this summer.  It was really good to be back, the crowd seemed pretty into the game.  The new FieldTurf looked great, even up close you can’t tell its not real grass except for the rubber pellets.  One interesting note from the game was from when Tedy Bruschi went down with an injury.  The whole crowd started chanting “TED-Y! TED-Y!”, and as soon as we did he jumped up and sprinted off the field.  It was like a scene out of Rocky.