I think the Bears are going to win this game.  Why, you ask?  Well the Bears defense is pretty nasty.  I’ve never seen a defense create turnovers the way the Bears do.  Standing guys up and ripping at the ball and tipping passes high in the air to give other defenders time to run underneath and intercept them.  Indy will be playing outside, on grass, possibly in the rain, and Peyton has not been particularly good in the postseason.  And although the Colts have their new playoff defense going, they did give up 34 points to the Patriots.  And Grossman has played well in both his playoff starts so far, and he had two weeks to prepare for this game.  If the Bears can get some of their big plays to Berrian, they have a shot.  Also, the Bears have the most dangerous returner in the game with Devin Hester while the Colts are near the bottom of league in kickoff and punt coverage.  I predict Bears 31, Colts 24.

Super Bowl XLI Prediction
Colts 24 - Bears 20
Last Week:
Picked winning team: 2-0, 1
Against the spread: 2-0, 1
Picking over/under: 1-1, 0.5

Its been a week and a half and I’m finally ready to discuss the game.  That was a really frustrating and really disappointing game to watch.  The Patriots had so many opportunities to win that game.  To get a 21-3 lead on the Colts in Indy and then lose it the way that they did was hard to take.  So what happened?

First, it feels to me that there were many many plays that might have changed the outcome of the game if the Patriots had made them.  Right after the Pats went up 21-3, they held the Colts to a 3 and out.  Then they were driving down the field again and got the to the 20 before an offensive pass interference call on Troy Brown and then an illegal shift call on Ben Watson pushed the Pats out of field goal range.  Before the penalties it looked like they were going to drive and score.  They still ended up pinning the Colts deep in their own territory with two minutes left.  They stopped the Colts on the first two downs, but then gave up the first on 3rd and long and the Colts drove to score.  I think this long drive along with the Colts first two long drives in the second half really exhausted the defense.  Another key penalty was late in the game with about 4 minutes left.  The Patriots got the ball with a field goal lead but had a penalty for 12 men in the huddle before they even had a play.  They went 3 and out and gave the Colts back the ball, and the Colts drove down to score for the lead.

The defense was extremely exhausted in the second half.  Whether it was the physical game the week before, the long trip from San Diego, the flu they had that week, or the heat in the RCA dome, they looked pretty tired.  It didn’t help that their best linebacker, Rosie Colvin, was out most of the second half, their best lineman, Richard Seymour, was missing plays for some sort of injury, and other players such as Artrell Hawkins and Vince Wilfork were missing occasional plays because of cramps.

The positive note was the play of the Patriots defensive backs.  In the first half, Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs were incredible.  There were quite a few long passes attempted by Manning that Hobbs and Samuel had great position on and made great plays to knock the balls down.  In addition, Hobbs had an 80 yard kickoff return and Samuel had an interception return for a touchdown.  Still, even in the first half, the fact that the Colts were so close to breaking some long passes and were only stopped by some great plays was worrisome because they couldn’t make great plays on every pass attempt.

It was a dissapointing end to the game but the Pats should be back next year… they have two first round picks.

The Patriots and the Colts meet again in the playoffs this week, this time in the AFC Championship Game in Indy.  The Patriots and Colts met earlier this season in Foxboro and the Colts won 27-20.  This game, however, is in Indy, and has the new playoff edition of the Colts defense, which is giving up about a third as many rushing yards per game as they did in the regular season.  Let’s take a look at how these changes will affect this game.

First, let’s look back to the game in Foxboro on November 5th.  The Colts won 27-20, but the Patriots were driving with a chance to tie the game with 2 minutes left until the Colts got an interception off a tip from Kevin Faulk.  For the game, Brady was intercepted 4 times, but three of those were off tipped balls.  The Patriots also lost one fumble during the game.  Even though Colts’ safety Bob Sanders (who all the media claim is the reason for the Colts D new ability to stop the run) playing in the November game, the Patriots still ran for 148 yards on 33 carries for a 4.5 yard per carry average.  Also in this game, Rodney Harrison was hurt on the Colts third offensive play and James Sanders had to play, in his first major action of the season.

This game will be in Indianapolis.  If the Patriots win this game, they will be the first team to reach the Super Bowl by beating two teams on the road that were undefeated at home.  I’m not so concerned about the crowd noise affecting Tom Brady and the offense, they have played great on the road all season.  It’s the temperature controlled dome and the turf that worries me.  The Colts are much faster on the turf and inside the dome than they are outside.  By my calculations, factoring in the strength of opposing defenses, the Colts offense is a whopping 16 points better at home than away.  That could be dangerous for us.  The last time the Patriots and Colts played in the RCA Dome in Indy was in 2003 when the Patriots won 38-34 on a ridiculous goal line stand at the end of the game (which inspired the start of this blog!).  The last matchup in Indy before that was the 2001 game where David Patten ran, threw, and received for touchdowns.  So the Patriots haven’t played too shabby in Indy.

Is the Colts run defense really as good as it has looked in the playoffs?  The Colts have made a few changes to their defense for the playoffs, with safety Bob Sanders coming back from injury, linebacker Rob Morris being inserted into the starting lineup at outside linebacker, and the defensive ends actually playing run defense instead of just rushing the passer every single play.  I don’t think the better rushing D can really be because of Bob Sanders like all the TV pundits would have you believe.  He did play in four regular season games this year (including the Pats game) and the Colts gave up a total of 661 rushing yards on 119 carries.  That’s an average of 5.5 yards per carry and 165 yards per game.  Personally, I think the big difference is that defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have actually been playing the run instead of just rushing the passer on every down.

What can the Patriots offense do?  Well with the Colts DE’s actually playing run defense and the Colts bringing an 8th man down into the box to stop the run, they are challenging the Pats to pass on them.  So I would expect to see the Patriots do just that early.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Patriots come out in a no-huddle spread offense and pass all over the Colts defense early.  Once the Colts can no longer commit that eighth man to the box then the Patriots can start to run.

On defense, the Patriots need to do a good job of not giving up the big play and not giving up too many rushing yards.  The player that worries me the most is Joseph Addai.  But if the Patriots defense line plays as it has the last few weeks then stopping the run should be possible.  The Patriots safeties are really the key to their defense.  The Colts try to use the slot receiver, usually TE Dallas Clark, to pull the safety from one side of the field over, opening the field up for Harrison or Wayne to run a deep route on that side of the field.  The Patriots safeties have to stay disciplined and stay in their coverage.  Last time James Sanders was forced to play most of the game after having not played much at all during the season, now he has 9 starts under his belt.  Plus Rodney Harrison practiced for the first time today so there is some chance that he could return to the starting lineup on Sunday.

Like most playoff games, and especially road games, it is important for the Patriots to get an early lead so they can dictate the game.  It is also very important that they do not turn the ball over.  In the last game against the Colts, the Patriots turned the ball over 5 times and were still in the game at the end.  If the Patriots can refrain from turning it over, then they have a good chance.

I like the Patriots in this game.  I think they’ll score quick with the no-huddle spread offense and then establish the run with Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon.  The Pats D will be able to stop Manning and keep him in his postseason slump.  Patriots win 28-17.

Conference Championships Predictions
Colts 28 - Patriots 21
Bears 23 - Saints 20
Last Week:
Picked winning team: 2-2, 0.5
Against the spread: 4-0, 1
Picking over/under: 2-2, 0.5

That was an absolutely incredible win yesterday in San Diego. It looked like the Patriots had lost the game quite a few times (down 11 in the first half with no offense, down 8 midway through the 4^th quarter, throwing an INT on 4^th down in the 4^th quarter). But the Patriots persevered and fought and came through with the win. There were quite a few exceptional plays.

The defense was incredible! In the first half, the Patriots kept going 3 and out and giving the Chargers great field position, but the defense did a good job of stopping the Chargers. During the game, the Chargers average start was at their 37 yard line and the Patriots’ offense had 6 three and out’s plus a 2 play drive that ended in an interception. Even with the bad field position and being on the field for so long, the Patriots D only gave up 21 points the league’s best offense and the best player in the game. One great example of this was in the third quarter when Brady threw an interception at his own 34 yard line. The Patriots defense actually pushed the Chargers back, they lost 6 yards in three plays and were knocked out of field goal range.

The offense of the Patriots struggled. As I said, they had seven drives of 4 plays or fewer. But they came through when it was needed. At the end of the first half they put together a good touchdown drive and at the end of the game they scored when it was needed. Brady was really off, throwing passes low, high, wide, short, etc. He threw three picks and missed quite a few open receivers. But when it came down the crunch time, he succeeded and the Patriots won the game.

Another reason the Patriots won this game was their fight. The ball was on the ground 4 times in this game and all four times the Patriots players were the ones on the bottom of the pile that got the ball. One fumble (on the goal line) was overturned, and another by Philip Rivers was on 4^th down and was not that key to the game. But in the second half the Patriots recovered a muffed punt as well as a fumble after an interception. I think the Patriots effort to jump on the ball first and fight for it on the bottom of the pile epitomizes this team and the reason they won this game. Troy Brown’s effort and instincts to strip the ball from the defender after the interception was incredible.

Players:

There were a number of great efforts by individual players in this game. The Patriots players really took their play to another level for this game and showed why they’ve been so good these last 6 years

• Troy Brown – The instincts and effort of Troy Brown to strip the ball from the defender after that interception were just incredible. The game was virtually over for the Patriots at that point until Troy reached in there and stripped the ball from Marlon McCree.
• Jabar Gaffney – Gaffney has really excelled in the playoffs. For a guy who was signed to the team in October and only had 11 catches in the regular season to have 8 and then 10 catches in key playoff games is really stepping it up.
• Reche Caldwell – Caldwell had 8 catches for 80 yards, including a touchdown and a key 3^rd down conversion on the winning field goal drive that he caught for 49 yards. And he recovered the fumble that Troy Brown forced on the interception.
• Matt Light and Nick Kascur – These two tackles did a great job of blocking the Chargers outside linebacking duo of Shawn Merriman and Shaun Philips. Early in the game, the Patriots were leaving extra tight ends to help block and couldn’t get anything done. In the last two minutes of the first half, the Patriots put in 3 WR’s, let Light and Kazcur block on their own and did great. The Chargers D, which had the most sacks in the league during the regular season, were held to two sacks in this game.
• Stephen Gostowski – Beaver, as his cousin calls him, did great in this game, hitting a 50 yarder early in addition to the 31 yard game winner. Gostowski has gone 3 for 3 in both playoff games, including a Patriots postseason record long 50 yarder and a game winner. Not bad at all.

The Patriots travel to San Diego this week to face the Chargers in the divisional round of the playoffs.  The Chargers are the best team in football, went 14-2 in the regular season, are full of all-pro players, and have the best player in the (history of?) the league in RB LaDainain Tomlinson.  The Patriots will need to have a perfect gameplan and perfect execution to win this game.  Let’s take a further look at what they have to do.

The key on defense is stopping LaDainian Tomlinson.  In three career games against the Pats, he’s averaged over 140 yards.  But those were against different teams (for example, last year, when Wilfork was playing poorly, Monty Beisel and Chad Brown were our middle linebackers, and we had just lost Rodney Harrison).  With the way our defensive line of Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, and Richard Seymour have been playing lately, we should have a chance at stopping.  But can we?

Tomlinson was held under 100 yards in five games this year.  Four in a row early against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Kansas City (their only two losses came in this 4 game stretch) and the final game against Arizona.  The Chargers only played 2 teams all year that are in the top 10 in run defense (Baltimore and Pittsburgh) and Tomlinson was held up 100 yards in both games.  The Pats D is ranked 5th, only giving up 94.2 rush yards per game.

So it seems likely that we can stop the run.  But what do we have to sacrifice to do it?  If we bring 8 men in the box to stop the run, it may be pretty easy for TE Antonio Gates (the best TE in the league) to get open.  Baltimore was able to hold Rivers to 145 yards passing in that game (part of that is Schottenhemier playing Martyball and sitting on the ball in the 2nd half).  Other teams were not as lucky as Rivers passed for over 230 yards in each of the other games were Tomlinson was stopped.

I think the Pats defense has to try to stop Tomlinson using their front seven so they still have the ability to stop the pass as well.  It would be even better if we could get an early lead to put them in passing situations even more.  Then hopefully we can force QB Philip Rivers (first year as a starter) into some mistakes (a la Ben Roethlisburger in the 2004 AFC Championship Game).  Rivers only has 9 interceptions on the year, but 4 of the 9 were in those 5 games were Tomlinson was held under 100 yards.

The Patriots defense is also #2 in the league after Baltimore in opponent QB rating.  Other than Baltimore, SD also played seventh ranked Oakland and ninth ranked Denver twice.  Rivers threw 2 picks at Denver, 1 at home against Oakland, and 1 against Baltimore.

Now let’s look at the other side of the ball.  The Chargers play a 3-4 defense similar to the Pats and have a huge nose tackle Jamal Williams like our Vince Wilfork.  They also have one of the best pass rushers in football in LB Shaun Merriman.  San Diego is first in the league in sacks and 11th in opponent passer rating.  When playing teams with similar sack-happy defenses (Miami and Green Bay), the Patriots allowed 1 and 5 sacks to the Dolphins and 2 sacks to the Packers. Since that 5 sack Dolphins game (a 21-0 loss), the Patriots have worked a lot harder on their protection and only given up 5 sacks in the last 4 games.
Points-wise, the Chargers defense has not faced an offense as good as the Patriots (averaging 24.1 pts/game).  In terms of yards, the Steelers and Bengals are better offenses than the Patriots and the Chargers gave up only 13 to the Steelers but 41 to the Bengals.  In passer rating, the Bengals are higher rated than the Pats offense and the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills are rated just behind the Pats.  The Chargers gave up 41 to the Bengals, 30 (in a loss) and 9 to the Chiefs, 16 to the Ravens, and 21 to the Bills in a very close 24-21 win.

So although I was pretty worried about the matchup of the Pats O and the Chargers D, I think the Patriots have a good chance to put up some points on them.  If the Pats can stay out of pass situations like 3rd and long and throw some quick passes to avoid the blitz pressure then they should be OK.

On special teams, the Patriots are first in kickoff returns and third in punt returns against the SD coverage units which are 12th on kickoffs and 15th on punts.  San Diego is 3rd in kickoff returns and 17th in punt returns while the Patriots are 20th in kickoff coverage and 26th in punt coverage.  So the Patriots have to be concerned about their coverage units but do have a shot at breaking some long returns.

As for intangibles, Belichick and the team are battle-tested, playoff veterans and will be prepared for any situation.  The Chargers lost their last playoff game in 2004, have a QB in his first year as a starter, and a coach who has a bad playoff reputation and who reportedly will be fired if they lose.  Also, the Patriots are the underdog which always motivates them and their wide receiving corps should be pretty pumped after Florida wrecked Ohio State for the BCS Championship (4 of the Pats receivers are from Florida - Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Chad Jackson, and Kelvin Kight).

I think the key thing in this game, on both sides of the ball, will be whether teams get into passing situations.  The Patriots want to get an early lead and stop Tomlinson on early downs to force the Chargers and Rivers into more passing situations.  More passing situations would mean less worry of Tomlinson running on them and more chances of forcing Philip Rivers into mistakes.  Similarly, on offense, the Patriots want to have the luxury of being able to run the ball, meaning having an early lead and getting some good yards on first and second down to avoid 3rd and long situations where Merriman and company can blitz.

Here is my prediction: The Patriots return the opening kickoff for a touchdown. This gives them some momentum and the early lead.  The defensive line is able to contain Tomlinson, holding him to 90 or so yards.  The Patriots force Philip Rivers into one or two turnovers and the Pats’ offense does not turn the ball over.  Patriots win 27-20.

Divisional Playoffs Predictions
Ravens 24 - Colts 20
Chargers 24 - Patriots 21
Bears 24 - Seahawks 16
Saints 24 - Eagles 21
Last Week:
Picked winning team: 3-1, 0.75
Against the spread: 3-1, 0.75
Picking over/under: 3-1, 0.75

My computer did a pretty good job predicting the NFC games last week predicting the Eagles to win 24-20 (actual score was 23-20) and the Cowboys to win 24-21 (they would have won 23-21 if Romo hadn’t bobbled the snap).

A great game by the Patriots yesterday against the Jets. The Patriots came out with a great offensive game plan early, going no huddle and throwing lots of short passes to the right sideline (to Jabar Gaffney on the 1st drive). The defense was dominant, giving up one long TD pass but otherwise holding the Jets to three field goals (including when the Jets started out inside the red zone after a Corey Dillon fumble.

Here are some random thoughts from the game:

• Jabar Gaffney was incredible. He must have been dying to get to the playoffs for a while. Not only did he have 8 catches for 104 yards, but he made some great moves to break tackles and avoid defenders after some of those catches to pick up extra yards and first downs.
• A really good scheme by the Patriots. As Brady said, this was a game where “It was like they think we are going to do this, and we think they are going to react this way, so what do we think they are going to think when we think?” In other words, it was like a rock-paper-scissors match out there between the coaching staffs.
• At one point, the Patriots ran the same play four times in a row (that Kevin Faulk run up the middle)
• The defensive line was DOMINANT. Great performance by Wilfork and co.
• I’m not sure why teams don’t go no-huddle on the first drive of every game.  If teams usually script the first 15 plays anyway, you should be able to go no-huddle pretty easily and you would think that would help a lot, keeping the defense back on its heels.

On to San Diego!!

Wildcard
Chiefs 31 - Colts 24
Patriots 24 - Jets 17
Eagles 24 - Giants 14
Seahawks 28 - Cowboys 24

Divisional Playoffs
Chargers 28 - Chiefs 17
Patriots 10 - Ravens 7
Bears 24 - Seahawks 21
Saints 31 - Eagles 27

Conference Championships
Chargers 27 - Patriots 24
Saints 28 - Bears 17

Super Bowl
Chargers 28 - Saints 17