Here is a video clip on youtube of the controversial calls from the Broncos-Patriots playoff game (found on the Sports Guy’s recent Best of YouTube article).  It has the pass interference call on Asante Samuel in the endzone as well as Champ Bailey’s touchback after his interception return.  I still remember screaming TOUCHBACK at the tv as soon as Ben Watson hit him.

Oh and another great clip that sports guy linked to from You Tube shows highlights of the New York Jet’s first round draft picks.  As Simmons says “The best part is when Rozelle announces one of the picks and says, “Fullback …” followed by one lone voice screaming, “Nooooooooooooo!”"

Mike Reiss posted in his blog an article from Cleveland about how the Browns nearly picked Ellis Hobbs over QB Charlie Frye in the 3rd round:

“We ranked 150 players on our board,” Savage said. “Charlie was our 45th-ranked player. People say, ‘Is that a second-round grade?’ We just let players fall off the board and said, ‘If he’s still there when the players ahead of him are gone, we’ll take him.’

“There was one name ahead of Charlie Frye when it was our turn in the third round.‘’

The name was Ellis Hobbs. …
“We’re sitting there talking about it,” Savage aid, “and I’m like … ‘OK, Ellis Hobbs is … probably gonna be a nickel corner. He might be a starting corner at some point, but … he’s 5-foot-9, 180-some pounds, and he’s he only guy standing between Charlie Frye and the Cleveland Browns.

“ ‘Guys, there’s no way we pass up Charlie Frye, who potentially might be our quarterback in a year or two, because this kid … has got grit, moxie, mobility. He’s got just enough arm. Let’s do it.’ ”

The reason I find this interesting is that from what I’ve read from Belichick’s comments about the draft, this would never happen in the Patriots’ war room. If you are going to pick Frye over Hobbs, then Frye should be rated over Hobbs. It sounds like Belichick, Pioli, and the staff evaluate all these possible decisions and know when they get there who they will draft out of who’s available so that there is no need for discussions like this in the war room. There’s no reason to save a discussion like “Ellis Hobbs or Charlie Frye” until you’re on the clock when you could have done it weeks in advance. This kind of preparation is just another reason why the Patriots are so good.

I was just looking at my 2005 season predictions… and I didn’t do too bad. Obviously some where way off, but I did get 5/6 playoff teams right in each conference. I just had Chiefs instead of Broncos in the AFC and Eagles instead of Redskins in the NFC.

Here’s the link to my predictions from September:

http://toddhester.net/patsblog/2005/09/22/2005-predictions/

Alright it’s time for me to make my prediction for Super Bowl XL. First, let’s breakdown the offense-defense matchups in the game.

Pittsburgh’s Offense vs. Seattle’s Defense:
Pittsburgh’s offense is currently scoring an average of 8.5 more points than the opposing defense normally allows (4th in NFL), while Seattle allows 5.2 points per game fewer than the opposing offense scores on average (1st in NFL). So, as expected in the Super Bowl, both these units are excellent. Pittsburgh’s offense excels at running the ball and protecting against turnovers. They give up 0.55 fewer picks and 0.24 fewer fumbles per game than the opposing defense normally gets while rushing for an extra 38 yards. They are also very good in the red zone, averaging 33% more efficient in the red zone than the opposing defense normally allows. Seattle’s defense holds team to 31 fewer rushing yards yards and 0.53 yards per carry fewer than they are used to. Their defense also usually picks up an extra 0.28 fumbles and 0.25 sacks per game. The Steelers struggle a little when they are held to under 3.5 yards per carry (although they won all their playoff games with low averages per carry). The Steelers win by an average of 28 to 11 when they have an average over 3.5 yards per carry and they lose by an average of 23 to 21 when they do not. The Steelers offense seems to be very balanced, as they run the ball very well and have not been afraid to come out throwing aggressively in the playoffs thus far. It will be very difficult for Seattle to stop Pittsburgh’s defense, even though they have one of the best rushing defenses in the league as well as the most sacks in the league.

Seattle’s Offense vs. Pittsburgh’s Defense:
The Seahawks offense averages 9.2 more points per game than opposing defense allows on average (3rd in NFL) while the Steelers defense holds opponents to 7.4 fewer points per game than the opposing team normally scores (6th in NFL). Seattle’s offense is very effective in all phases of the game, rushing for an additional 31 yards per game and passing for an extra 15 yards over what the opposing defenses usually give up. Seattle also gives up 0.61 fewer interceptions, 0.27 fewer fumbles, and 1.0 fewer sacks per game than the defense averages. Pittsburgh’s defense, meanwhile, allows 30.7 fewer rush yards per game and 10.7 pass yards per game than the opposing offenses average. Pittsburgh also picks up an extra 1.3 sacks per game as well. Pittsburgh’s defense does not appear to be anything special in terms of rushing average allowed or 3rd down conversion rate, however. The Seahawks offense, is very balanced with the league MVP Shaun Alexander rushing the ball and Matt Hasselback is able to throw it when they need it.

This is a very tough game to call. Both offenses are very good and very balanced. Both defenses are extremely effective at stopping the run and blitzing the quarterback. Both teams have been playing great through the postseason thus far and both were dominant in their wins in the conference championship games. Seattle’s defense was incredible in the NFC championship game with Carolina last week, allowing something like 40 offensive yards in the first half. If Seattle can perform like that tomorrow, then they should win the game. I think it will be an exciting low-scoring, defensive game, where every point is crucial and any big play could decide the game. I’m predicting that Seattle wins 17-14 with King Philip’s own Lofa Tatupu as Super Bowl MVP.

Super Bowl Predictions
Steelers 23 - Seahawks 17

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 2-0, 1
Against the spread: 2-0, 1
Picking over/under: 2-0, 1

I predict that both the road teams will win this weekend. Steve Smith is unstoppable and I think Carolina’s defense should be able to hold Seattle’s offense.
The Steelers should be able to stop Denver’s offense like the Patriots did, so as long as they can avoid turning the ball over 5 times, I think they’ll win.

Conference Championships
Steelers 24 - Broncos 20
Seahawks 27 - Panthers 21

Super Bowl
Steelers 21 - Seahawks 20

I think I talked to one league official, two head coaches, a quarterback, and a GM as the day progressed on Sunday, and there was one common theme: The officials are making too many mistakes for this time of year. The one that NO ONE could believe was the Asante Samuel interference on Ashley Lelie. As the GM said: “Don’t tell me that didn’t have a big part in the outcome of the game because the game ended up not being close. It was huge.'’ I say: Allow replay for pass interference. I know it opens up a can of worms, but it’s just too big a problem six or eight times a year, and it’s a problem that can be corrected.

I honestly don’t think Peyton Manning will ever win a Super Bowl. He obviously doesn’t perform well under pressure (not to mention Vanderjagt), but he doesn’t take responsibility for his own poor play. After starting out 2 for 9 in the game with Steelers, Manning basically said it was the offensive line’s fault and not his (of course Manning points out the protection for the O-line before each snap):

Here are my thoughts during the Patriots loss yesterday:

On their second drive, the Patriots went for it on 4th and 1 from Denver’s 36 yard line. I really thought the Patriots should have punted here, even after Brady came onto the field I thought Brady might punt it because going for it here made no sense. In a defensive game like this field position is huge, you can punt it, hold them, and get good field position next drive. Anyway, the Patriots didn’t convert, and they started their next three drives on the 4, 3, and 11 yard lines while the Broncos started their drives at their 36, 37 and 44 yard lines. Finally with under 4 minutes left in the half we drove down and got a field goal, but that 4th and 1 call changed both teams’ field position for over 17 minutes of the game.

There were two plays in the first half where John Lynch blitzed untouched from the right side. On the first one, Brady fired to the left for about 7 yards to Christian Fauria. The second time, he tried the same thing and Fauria was double covered. Prertty good defense by the Broncos there.

In the second quarter, the Patriots accepted an offensive holding penalty after stopping the Broncos on third down to try to push them out of field goal range and it almost cost them as Denver drove to the 3 yard line.

Denver going for it on 4th and 1 from our 3 yard line. Plays like this are why football is better to wach than any other sport. There aren’t critical decisions with huge impacts like this in other games. Football is a game of decisions.

Is there anything more exciting than a good defensive football game? Every point seems so valuable, every yard is so tough, and it makes every play seem that much more intense.

What a ridiculous pass interference call on Asante Samuel in the endzone.

At halftime, I was feeling good, our defense was shutting down Denver’s O, our offense had gotten the ball moving, and the only way Denver was able to score was off turnovers, and we were only down 7. All we’d have to do is not turn the ball over anymore.

What a run the Patriots have had over the last 4 years. The third quarter of this game was the first time I can remember seriously thinking the Pats might lose a playoff game since the Oakland snow bowl game to start the 2001 playoffs.

What a huge play in the 3rd quarter by Champ Bailey. The have driven down the field and it looks like we might go up 13-10 or at least make it 10-9, but instead Bailey picks the ball off in the endzone and runs it back 100 yards. And what a play by Ben Watson to run him down! I start yelling that it should be a touchback and finally Belichick reviews it but there’s not much on the video to overturn it. Meanwhile I keep saying “Our TIGHT END just ran down Champ Bailey from across the field!!!!” When CBS finally shows it, it is ridiculous. Did you see the extra speed Ben Watson put on when the ref almost blocked him?

So our D stops Denver, it looks like we might have a chance to do something here, and then Troy Brown muffs the punt. Could these turnovers come at any worse times?

Our defense played great in this game, shutting down Denver’s running game, holding them to 96 rushing yards (19 in garbage time), which is the second fewest Denver’s had all year. We held Denver to 286 yards total, but can’t turn the ball over 5 times and win a game. Denver scored 24 points off 4 turnovers, and only had to get 24 offensive yards (plus a questionable 39 yard pass interference call) to get those points. So its really too bad that the D played so well and we lost the games on turnovers like that.

Key Plays:
Obviously the Champ Bailey pick and return was huge in the game, being a ten or 14 point swing, but I think that decision to go for it on 4th and 1 really setup Denver in great field position for most of the first half, really making it tough for us to do anything there.

A great run by the Pats and I’m sure they’ll be back next year. Remember the offseason after the 2002 season? We got rid of Lawyer Milloy, Tebucky Jones, and Victor Green, and signed Rodney Harrison and Rosevelt Colvin through free agency. So I’d expect to see some good moves this offseason and the Pats to come back even hungrier next year.

Quick comment on that Colts game:
Who didn’t see that Vanderjagt choke coming on that kick after all the trash he’s talked in the past?