Hines Ward crying after the Steelers loss

This was a great game. Belichick and Crennel clearly came in with a plan to shut down the Steelers running game and force Roethlisberger to try to throw on them. And he did, to the tune of three interceptions. One of which was returned for 87 yards for a TD by Rodney Harrison. Offensively, the o-line did a great job protecting for Brady, giving him plenty of time to throw and throw deep. The game was over early, with the Patriots leading 24-3 at halftime. There were a number of key plays early, first Eugene Wilson picking off Big Ben’s first pass, then the Patriots stopping the Steelers on fourth and 1 (causing a fumble too) and on the next play the 60 yard pass to Branch for the first TD. Then of course there is Rodney Harrison’s 87 yard interception return for a touchdown. I think the fourth and 1 play and the interception show very well why the Patriots won this game. Let’s take a look at these two plays.

Fourth and one yard to go, in Patriots territory. You knew the Patriots would stop this. Not only did they stop it, but they forced a fumble from Bettis and recovered it. What’s interesting though is that right before the play Belichick called Ted Johnson over to the sideline and said something to him. Here’s what was said about that after the game: “[Belichick] saw something and he alerted me and it turned out to be huge. It was an adjustment — I really can’t go into it,” said Johnson. “That stuff happens all the time. It’s amazing sometimes.”

The second play that shows why the Patriots are so good is the interception return by Harrison. First off, to have a player like Harrison wait there and bait the QB like that and then just jump in front and take the ball is impressive. Then downfield, he just had Roethlisberger to beat and of course he had Mike Vrabel and Rosevelt Colvin to block for him. But the thing that stands out on this play to me is that Roethlisberger is the only one who made any attempt to stop Harrison’s return. No one else ran after him. That is a team that has given up. In a similar situation, back in Buffalo, when the Bills were returning a fumble, not only did Bethel Johnson chase him and catch him but then Stephen Neal got there and punched the ball out the back of the endzone. Not only did we have wide receivers chasing after the returner, but offensive linemen! Clearly the Steelers didn’t care that much.

So now unlike the two years that we won the Super Bowl, we have really dominated in our playoff games thus far. We won the first by 17 points and the second by 14 points and neither game was really even that close. More imporantly, we held the league’s best offense to only 3 points and scored 41 points on the league’s best defense. Amazing! Now we play the Eagles in the Super Bowl. A team that I dont think is as good as the Colts or the Steelers. Another fact to look at is that not only did we dominate, but these were tough teams. After the Patriots, the Steelers, Colts, and Eagles are probably considered the three next best teams in the league. If the Patriots do win the Super Bowl, they’ll have the highest playoff opponent win pct of anyone, with the three opponents a combined 40-8 (83%).

Is this a dynasty? Of course it is. Who do you consider a dynasty? Obviously the Packers of the 60s, the Steelers of the 70s, and probably the 49ers of the 80s and the Cowboys of the 90s. Well, if the Patriots win this Super Bowl they will have won 3 SB’s in 4 years, matching the Cowboys feat in the early 90s. The Patriots however, will have done it with the salary cap and free agency, when this type of thing shouldn’t happen. The Patriots have won 33 of their last 36 games and won 21 games straight between last year and this year. And a lot of the Patriots players are starting to look like hall-of-famers. Bill Belichick is now 9-1 in the playoffs, tying the great Vince Lombardi (as Belichick said, the trophy is named for him). Brady and many of the Patriots are 8-0 in the playoffs. Many of the Pats players, even though they haven’t been recognized with Pro Bowl appearances lately are great players such as Harrison, McGinest, Bruschi, Seymour, Dillon, Brady and Vinatieri. I think Vinatieri has a good shot at being the first kicker in the hall of fame (depending on when the Andersons retire). And Brady’s status is quickly reaching Joe Montana’s, he’s 27 and already won 2 Super Bowl MVP’s, has an insane win percentage, and is 8-0 in the playoffs. I actually saw Tom Jackson say “We may be looking at the best-ever” on ESPN the other day, talking about Brady. He’s 27 and they’re already saying he may be the best-ever. Wow.

This was really an amazing dominating victory. To take a team that scored over 500 points in the regular season, and scored 49 points in their first playoff game, and hold them to a measly field goal (no touchdowns!) is incredible. Add to that the fact that Pro Bowl DL Richard Seymour was out, Pro Bowl CB Ty Law was out, and CB Ty Poole was out and its even more insane. And if only Eugene Wilson hadn’t dropped that pick in the endzone at the end of the first half it could have been a shutout. This shows a few things: A. The Colts are great at beating up on bad defenses, but can’t compete with the best defenses, B. Great defense always beats great offense, and C. The Patriots coaching staff is definitely the best in the league (which is why Weis and Crennel will be head coaches next year). And Corey Dillon, obviously, makes this team so much better than the team last year, and last year we won 15 games in a row, including Super Bowl XXXVIII. The Pats linebackers were great as well, especially Tedy Bruschi. The one play where he hit Dominic Rhodes and then just ripped the ball out of his arms and took it for his own was just amazing. That epitomizes what this team does. And how much more physical they were than the Colts yesterday. Amazing!

Being at the game yesterday was great. Being at the games is always great, being at playoff games is better, and being at big wins is even better. Once the Patriots started dominating in the second half it turned more into a party than a game (even for the players, see Bruschi above). We were going wild and cheering for every play. Dillon made a huge run and we did a Corey chants, then on defense we had chants for Bruschi and Willie when they made big plays. And when the Colts started looking really bad we started yelling “Cut that meat!!” from the commercial where Peyton Manning is cheering at the butcher shop. I guess you could actually hear that one on TV, they even mentioned it in the Boston Globe and the Indy Star:

As the game was winding down, the Pats’ fans were in celebratory overdrive. “Cut that meat!” the crowd roared after Reggie Wayne’s late fumble snuffed out whatever remote chances the Colts might still have harbored. “Cut that meat!”

Celebratory overdrive explains it exactly. It was sweet.

One thing that makes the Patriots coaching staff so great is their ability to adapt. This is an important ability for anything in life, actually. But I remember back when Pete Carroll took over coaching for Parcells and Belichick. And I remember thinking how horrible he was. Parcells and Belichick would see the players they had and come up with the best scheme for them. Carroll would have his scheme and try to make it work whether it made sense with the players or not. A great example is 2002, when the Patriots had 3 good safeties, so Belichick and Crennel came up with schemes using 3 safeties. Pete Carroll and most NFL coaches would never do anything like that. Yesterday you could see in the first half of the game, the Patriots were trying to use a balanced offense, running and passing evenly and they wanted to score points. But Dwight Freeney and the Colts were getting a lot of pressure on Brady and most of Brady’s receiver were well covered, while Dillon was running wild. So in the second half the Patriots came out and ran the ball through the Colts, pounding their defense and controlling the clock to win. For some reason people are saying it was the Patriots plan to control the clock using Dillon from the start but clearly they didn’t change to that plan until the second half. This adjustment to run the ball heavily in the second half shows how great the Pats coaches are. They’re not stubborn people who want to force their schemes; instead if something doesn’t work, they’ll use what does work. Which is key to a victory.

I think the keys to success in the NFL are 1. The ability to adapt, and 2. Playing better in the clutch. Bledsoe can’t adapt to today’s faster game and so he stinks. Brady and Vinatieri play better with playoff pressure on while guys like Peyton Manning and Doug Brien feel the pressure and crumble. If you’re looking for a player that will lead your team to a championship you should compare his playoff stats with his regular season stats and see if he steps it up in the playoffs or if he collapses.

So next week is Patriots at Steelers in the AFC Championship game. Last time we didn’t have Corey Dillon, Ty Law got hurt in the first quarter, Matt Light got hurt, Asante Samuel was out for a while, and I think it might have been Brandon Gorin’s first start at right tackle as well. Obviously this time Dillon will be in, Samuel, Gay, and Brown will be used to playing DB and Gorin is used to playing tackle. I think the Patriots should have no trouble shutting down the Steelers offense, the question will be how the Patriots offense does against the Steelers top ranked defense.

So the Colts are coming to play the Pats this Sunday at Gillette.  The match-up everyone has been waiting for.  The Colts offense is red-hot and just scored 49 points against the Broncos last week.  The Pats defense is banged up, with both starting corners (Law and Poole) done for the season and Seymour not at 100% as well.  But I still believe the Patroits will win this game.  Lets look at the match-ups:Colts offense vs. Pats defense
Everyone thinks this is the key to the game.  And most seem to think the Colts should be able to score at will on the Pats since they’re so hot and the Pats D is so banged up.  Belichick and Crennel will come up with a much better gameplan than the Broncos did though.  The Patriots D has always been about the scheme rather than the players anyway and no one is better than Belichick at covering their own weaknesses.  A great example of this is to look at the Pats first Super Bowl win.  The Rams had a red hot offense.  We had a team that really wasn’t very talented and yet we won anyway.  As you’ll see below, I think the Patriots only have to hold the Colts to about 30 points to win.  And we should do even better than that.  The Pats D is second best in the league in scoring defense.  Against some of the best offenses in the league, we only gave up 22 points to the Rams and 19 points to the Chiefs, both of these games being after Ty Law got injured.  The only time the Colts played a good defense recently, the only scored 20 points on the Ravens.  So its not too unreasonable to expect the Colts to only score about 20 - 25 points on the Pats.

Pats offense vs. Colts defense
This is the reason that the Patriots will win that everyone overlooks.  The Patriots offense averaged 27.3 points per game, fourth best in the NFL.  Indy’s defense gave up 21.9 points per game, 19th best in the league.  Our offense is much better than it was last year or even the first game against the Colts this year, as we’ve used Corey Dillon more effectively and been able to open up a deeper passing game.  In the first game the Pats and Colts played in Indy last year, the Pats scored 38 points on them. In the AFC championship game, the Pats were in the redzone 7 times!!!  Even in our worst offensive day of the year, without Corey Dillon, against the tough Steelers defense, we scored 20 points.  Against the defenses closest in ranking to the Colts, we scored 24 and 28 on Miami, 35 on Cincinnati, and 42 on Cleveland.  When playing the league’s top offenses, the Colts allowed 27 points to us, 45 to the Chiefs, and 31 to the Chargers.  So It seems pretty reasonable that we should score between 28 - 45 points.

Special teams
Remember the game at Indy last year?  Bethel returning one kickoff for a TD and another long enough to setup the winning score?   I don’t think the Colts kickoff coverage has really improved that much.  And if Bethel returning punts against the 49ers is a sign of what is to come in the playoffs then we could be springing some huge punt returns as well.  Definitely our advantage here.

Intangibles
The Colts will be playing outside.  Away from their dome.  In the cold.  In the wind.  At Gillette Stadium.  And I will be screaming as loud as I can at Peyton Manning and so will 60,000 other people.  Home field advantage is huge.

Prediction
My prediction was originally 35-28.  As I’ve started looking at the stats since Law went down and especially looking back on the victory in SB XXXVI, it seems likely we should win by even more.  I don’t think there’s any way the Colts can hold us to under 30 points.  My prediction is now going to be 38 - 24 Patriots.

Links
Here are the links to all the Pats - Colts info you could possibly need:
ESPN.com Pats - Colts section
Boston.com Patriots section
Indy.com Colts section

This was my first road game other than Super Bowl XXXVI. My friend Brad called me Saturday night to say he had tickets to my friends Gerard, Brent and I made the trek to the game. It was a great game, almost all the scores were in our endzone. The Patriots haven’t lost now in over a year!!! Absolutely incredible. This is exactly the way they won all of their games last year too. Both sides doing just enough to keep a small lead and ending with the other team trying to drive to tie or win the game and the defense shutting them down. Huge plays in this game: One huge play was where David Givens fumbled his catch (later ruled incomplete) and London Fletcher picked it up and started running for the endzone. Bethel Johnson and Stephen Neal closed on him and forced him to fumble out of the endzone, which is a touchback and makes it Patriots ball. Apparently Belichick had at some point even told his players that a fumble out the endzone is a touchback so in that situation thats what they want to try to do. The fact that the Patriots OFFENSIVE players know enough to chase a guy down and force him to fumble out the endzone is incredible and shows why they’re so good. The other huge play was of course Bruschi forcing Bledsoe to fumble and Seymour returning it for a TD and a 31-17 lead. I truly feel bad for these Bill’s fans. Their team is so bad. Not as bad as the Dolphins, who we play next week. Another cool thing from the game was that the opposite endzone was full of Patriots fans. When Buffalo was making its final drive to tie, they were all up and screaming and scattered fans around the stadium (dumb Bills fans?? or were there that many Pats fans there?) were also up yelling for the Pats D. That was cool. On our way back we stopped at a rest area in Syracuse and it was completely packed full of Pats fans decked out in shirts and jerseys. Next week we hope to make our record 4-0 with a win at home against Miami. Pats - Bills Pictures!

Well I have to say the Pats look like they should be pretty good this year.  The only major loss to the team was huge nose tackle Ted Washington.  They drafted Vince Wilfork and signed Keith Traylor to try to replace him.  Otherwise, the defense should be better with some of the younger guys getting better and Roosevelt Colvin coming back from his injury.  On offense, the Pats lost Damien Woody, but it appeared last year that their o-line would be ok with out him.  They also traded with the Bengals for RB Corey Dillon, who at one point was probably the best RB around (and thats while on the Bengals).  This is the first time the Pats have had a real running back since Curtis Martin.  Dillon gives us the ability to run the ball when we need to and gives us a chance of breaking a long run, which we never really had with Antowain.  Already in the first game Dillon busted out a 38 yard run I think (yes I’m writing this after the first game).  Also, the Patriots drafted TE Ben Watson, who from the preseason could develop into a fantastic TE.  He had some trouble catching the balls in preseason but when he did he can run over people and he can run fast.  Finally, the Pats signed Josh Miller to replace Ken Walter, who had a horrific season at punter last year.  So overall, the Pats offense should be much improved, there are still some questions about the Patriots run defense but I have some faith that Belichick can figure out scheme to help them not miss Washington so much.

Looking at the Pats schedule the toughest games look to be against the Colts, Seahawks, Rams, and Chiefs.  We’ve already won the first of those games so we’re looking pretty good already. I’m going to go ahead and put a prediction out there for a final record of 13-3 for the Patriots.

For the NFL in general, I didn’t do too bad with my predictions last year.  This year hopefully I’ll do better.  The obvious choices for the Super bowl would be Patriots and Eagles.  Maybe even Broncos and Seahawks.  My sleeper picks are the Bengals and the Lions.  Anyway, here are my picks for the winners of each division and the playoffs:

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Bengals
AFC West: Broncos
AFC South: Indy
AFC Wildcards: Tennessee and Cleveland

NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC West: Seahawks
NFC South: Falcons
NFC Wildcards: Lions and Panthers

I’ll say the two teams in Jacksonville for SB XXXIX will be the Patriots and the Seahawks, with the Pats coming out on top.

What a great game.

The Patriots offense looked really good and they were able to beat the Colts 27-24.  Dillon looked awesome and everytime he came out we would cheer “Corey! Corey!”  Brady looked amazing, stepping up from the rush repeatedly and throwing perfect 15-20 yard completions.  Not so much of the short dink and dunk passing game it looks like this year.  The first round pick, TE Watson, looked pretty good as well while he was out there.

The defense however, looked really bad against the run.  The loss of Ted Washington could really hurt them.  But they were able to make the turnovers when it counted so they survived the game.  Eugene Wilson’s forced fumble on the 1 that was recovered by Wilfork was key.  But the Pats need some serious work on their run D.
I still have to wonder why, on 2nd and 5, with 2:08 left, and Dillon running like he was, we would attempt a passing play.  I feel like if we ran there we never would have given the Colts the opportunity to tie it with a FG.  Also, why is Deion Branch back returning punts? That play was horrible.

Nonetheless, great game, great stops in the redzone, and some great play by Brady and Dillon too.  Wilfork looked good too!

And about the pregame show.   That was great. They should combine the NFL season opening celebration with the champions’ Super Bowl celebration every year.  We even got small Super Bowl banner replicas.

1-0! (And against one of the best teams in the league)
16 in a row!!

Pats - Colts pictures!

The first thing to look at is the Patriots current roster and what their needs are.  They made a brilliant trade two days ago by trading their second round pick to Cincinatti for RB Corey Dillon, one of the best backs in the league.  With this move they now have the league’s best defense, one of the best QB’s and one of the best RB’s.  It’s a great trade because they would have ended up spending a first round pick on a running back that may or may not be good. Instead they spend a second round pick on a running back that they know is good.  Another way to look at it is that last year they traded Tebucky Jones for a 3rd and 7th round pick last year and a fourth round pick this year.  Then they traded that third rounder last year to Miami for a 2nd rounder this year.  And now they’ve traded that second rounder for Corey Dillon.  So the end result is that they traded Tebucky Jones for Corey Dillon and a fourth and seventh round pick.  Quite a move.  Anyway, here’s a look at their current roster:

QB: Tom Brady is a two-time Super Bowl MVP and we also have Kliff Klingsbury and Rohan Davey.  So we’re all set.

RB:  Corey Dillon, Kevin Faulk, and Mike Cloud.  Looks good.

FB:  Fred McCrary, Patrick Pass.  I guess we could use someone here, but not a pressing need.

WR: Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens, Bethel Johnson, Dedric Ward, JJ Stokes.  Looks really good but we could always add another tall receiver from one of the deeper positions in the draft.

OT:  Tom Ashworth, Matt Light, Adrian Klemm.  Actually pretty good, but you can alwasy use extra offensive linemen.

OG: Joe Andruzzi, Russ Hochstein.  Ok this position is pretty weak.  Definitely look for the Pats to pick someone up in the draft here.

C:  Dan Koppen.  They could always pick up another versatile lineman that can play center.

TE: Christian Fauria, Daniel Graham.  Looks good.

DT: Keith Traylor, Dan Klecko, Ty Warren, Richard Seymour.  This position is OK, but there’s no one here who is a true nose tackle for the 3-4.  So look for the Pats to draft a huge nose tackle.

DE: Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, Rodney Bailey.  Looks really good, but it never surprises me to see the Pats pickup more linemen.

LB: Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, Roman Phifer, Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Roosevelt Colvin, Matt Chatham.  Very good, but everyone is very old.  Look for the Pats to pickup some young LB’s in the draft.

CB: Ty Law, Tyrone Poole, Asante Samuel, Jeff Burris, Otis Smith.  Another pretty good position but look for them to draft someone to eventually replace Ty Law.

S: Rodney Harrison, Eugene Wilson.  Definitely need help here.  Especially if they eventually want to move Eugene Wilson back to corner.

K: Adam Vinatieri.  The best clutch kicker in the game.

P: Josh Miller.  Hopefully pretty good.

So I guess I’d say the order that they need players in is S, OG, DT, LB, anywhere.  Some of the names you might see them pickup are S Sean Taylor (if they trade way up), LB Jonathon Vilma, LB DJ Williams, DT Marcus Tubbs, OG Justin Smiley, OG Vernon Carey, or S Bob Sanders.