The fourth down call.  I think statistically this actually makes sense.  If you get the 4th down, you can run the clock down nearly to the end and almost certainly win the game.  If you miss it, the Colts get it at the 28 yardline, where there’s a very high chance you lose.  With Brady, on 4th and 2 or less, the Pats convert 76.4% of the time.  Against the Colts since 2000, they’ve converted 75% of the time on 4th down.  So going for it, there’s a greater than 75% chance that you seal the game and win it right there.  So you need to be able to stop the Colts more than 75% of the time (meaning they score less than 25% of the time) after the punt for it to be the right decision.  For the season, the Colts score touchdowns on 30% of their drives.  In this game, they scored on 5 of their 14 possessions (35.7%) and on the last 3 drives when they were hot, they scored 2 TDs (66.6%).  So it seems unlikly you would stop them more than 75% of the time, and going for it is the right decision.  Here are two blogs with good analysis of the decision: Stats blog and the ZEUS computer program.  In Peter King’s MMQB, he looks at the last 7 drives, where the Colts scored TDs on 2 of them (28.6%), so it still the right decision to go for it if you assume a >71.4% conversion rate.  Sure, there’s a chance of an interception if you punt it, but its not greater than your chances of getting the first down right there.  The bigger issue with Belichick is the wasting of the timeouts that could have let us review the play, or stop the clock when the Colts were going to score.

This game had a few great performances:

• Sebastian Vollmer did a great job blocking Dwight Freeney.
• Kevin Faulk had an amazing game, rushing 12 times for 79 yards.
• Tom Brady and Randy Moss were great as always.