The fourth down call.  I think statistically this actually makes sense.  If you get the 4th down, you can run the clock down nearly to the end and almost certainly win the game.  If you miss it, the Colts get it at the 28 yardline, where there’s a very high chance you lose.  With Brady, on 4th and 2 or less, the Pats convert 76.4% of the time.  Against the Colts since 2000, they’ve converted 75% of the time on 4th down.  So going for it, there’s a greater than 75% chance that you seal the game and win it right there.  So you need to be able to stop the Colts more than 75% of the time (meaning they score less than 25% of the time) after the punt for it to be the right decision.  For the season, the Colts score touchdowns on 30% of their drives.  In this game, they scored on 5 of their 14 possessions (35.7%) and on the last 3 drives when they were hot, they scored 2 TDs (66.6%).  So it seems unlikly you would stop them more than 75% of the time, and going for it is the right decision.  Here are two blogs with good analysis of the decision: Stats blog and the ZEUS computer program.  In Peter King’s MMQB, he looks at the last 7 drives, where the Colts scored TDs on 2 of them (28.6%), so it still the right decision to go for it if you assume a >71.4% conversion rate.  Sure, there’s a chance of an interception if you punt it, but its not greater than your chances of getting the first down right there.  The bigger issue with Belichick is the wasting of the timeouts that could have let us review the play, or stop the clock when the Colts were going to score.

This game had a few great performances:

• Sebastian Vollmer did a great job blocking Dwight Freeney.
• Kevin Faulk had an amazing game, rushing 12 times for 79 yards.
• Tom Brady and Randy Moss were great as always.

This was a pretty good game.  Another tough divisional fight. I think these close games are good practice for later in the year.  Although the defense struggled with the Wildcat in the 2nd quarter and the Dolphins’ first drive of the 3rd quarter, they came through for the rest of the second half.  A few random thoughts:

• Brady and Moss looked good, going for the deep connection.
• Vince Wilfork played over at end, and looked pretty good there.
• Stephen Gostkowski had some nice kickoffs, especially the touchback after the offsides.  I loved that Moss was the first one to congratulate him after the touchback.
• Randy Moss had a great day, especially that stiff arm.
• Miami’s rookie corners are going to be really good.  Vontae Davis had some tight coverage on Moss most of the day.
• As always, Wes Welker shined.
• The red zone offense was lacking.  We need to score touchdowns in the red zone if we’re going to win games.
• Perhaps Laurence Maroney’s “self-scouting” during the bye week paid off…