The Patriots and the Colts meet again in the playoffs this week, this time in the AFC Championship Game in Indy.  The Patriots and Colts met earlier this season in Foxboro and the Colts won 27-20.  This game, however, is in Indy, and has the new playoff edition of the Colts defense, which is giving up about a third as many rushing yards per game as they did in the regular season.  Let’s take a look at how these changes will affect this game.

First, let’s look back to the game in Foxboro on November 5th.  The Colts won 27-20, but the Patriots were driving with a chance to tie the game with 2 minutes left until the Colts got an interception off a tip from Kevin Faulk.  For the game, Brady was intercepted 4 times, but three of those were off tipped balls.  The Patriots also lost one fumble during the game.  Even though Colts’ safety Bob Sanders (who all the media claim is the reason for the Colts D new ability to stop the run) playing in the November game, the Patriots still ran for 148 yards on 33 carries for a 4.5 yard per carry average.  Also in this game, Rodney Harrison was hurt on the Colts third offensive play and James Sanders had to play, in his first major action of the season.

This game will be in Indianapolis.  If the Patriots win this game, they will be the first team to reach the Super Bowl by beating two teams on the road that were undefeated at home.  I’m not so concerned about the crowd noise affecting Tom Brady and the offense, they have played great on the road all season.  It’s the temperature controlled dome and the turf that worries me.  The Colts are much faster on the turf and inside the dome than they are outside.  By my calculations, factoring in the strength of opposing defenses, the Colts offense is a whopping 16 points better at home than away.  That could be dangerous for us.  The last time the Patriots and Colts played in the RCA Dome in Indy was in 2003 when the Patriots won 38-34 on a ridiculous goal line stand at the end of the game (which inspired the start of this blog!).  The last matchup in Indy before that was the 2001 game where David Patten ran, threw, and received for touchdowns.  So the Patriots haven’t played too shabby in Indy.

Is the Colts run defense really as good as it has looked in the playoffs?  The Colts have made a few changes to their defense for the playoffs, with safety Bob Sanders coming back from injury, linebacker Rob Morris being inserted into the starting lineup at outside linebacker, and the defensive ends actually playing run defense instead of just rushing the passer every single play.  I don’t think the better rushing D can really be because of Bob Sanders like all the TV pundits would have you believe.  He did play in four regular season games this year (including the Pats game) and the Colts gave up a total of 661 rushing yards on 119 carries.  That’s an average of 5.5 yards per carry and 165 yards per game.  Personally, I think the big difference is that defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have actually been playing the run instead of just rushing the passer on every down.

What can the Patriots offense do?  Well with the Colts DE’s actually playing run defense and the Colts bringing an 8th man down into the box to stop the run, they are challenging the Pats to pass on them.  So I would expect to see the Patriots do just that early.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Patriots come out in a no-huddle spread offense and pass all over the Colts defense early.  Once the Colts can no longer commit that eighth man to the box then the Patriots can start to run.

On defense, the Patriots need to do a good job of not giving up the big play and not giving up too many rushing yards.  The player that worries me the most is Joseph Addai.  But if the Patriots defense line plays as it has the last few weeks then stopping the run should be possible.  The Patriots safeties are really the key to their defense.  The Colts try to use the slot receiver, usually TE Dallas Clark, to pull the safety from one side of the field over, opening the field up for Harrison or Wayne to run a deep route on that side of the field.  The Patriots safeties have to stay disciplined and stay in their coverage.  Last time James Sanders was forced to play most of the game after having not played much at all during the season, now he has 9 starts under his belt.  Plus Rodney Harrison practiced for the first time today so there is some chance that he could return to the starting lineup on Sunday.

Like most playoff games, and especially road games, it is important for the Patriots to get an early lead so they can dictate the game.  It is also very important that they do not turn the ball over.  In the last game against the Colts, the Patriots turned the ball over 5 times and were still in the game at the end.  If the Patriots can refrain from turning it over, then they have a good chance.

I like the Patriots in this game.  I think they’ll score quick with the no-huddle spread offense and then establish the run with Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon.  The Pats D will be able to stop Manning and keep him in his postseason slump.  Patriots win 28-17.